December 2019 Monthly Forecast

• Overview        

  The US has the presidency in December. It is planning a briefing on a new topic: the role of philanthropy in post-conflict situations, to be held under the broader agenda item “Maintenance of International Peace and Security”.  Otherwise, the programme of work largely focuses on regular briefings and mandate renewals. Read more

• In Hindsight: Negotiations on Resolution 2493 on Women, Peace and Security

  On 29 October, during the Security Council’s annual open debate on women, peace and security, resolution 2493 was adopted, following long and difficult negotiations led by South Africa. The resolution passed unanimously, and Naledi Pandor, South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, who chaired part of the debate, remarked that she had been told that this was “a welcome return to consensus in the Council”. Read more

• Status Update since our November Forecast

  Status Update since our November Forecast Read more

• Iraq

  In December, the Council is expected to receive a briefing by the Special Representative and head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, on the most recent developments in the situation in Iraq and on the two latest Secretary-General’s reports—on UNAMI and on the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-country nationals and missing Kuwaiti property, including the national archives. Read more

• Somalia

  In December, the Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing counter-piracy measures off the coast of Somalia which expire on 6 December. Read more

• Syria

  In December, the Council will receive the monthly Syria briefings on the humanitarian situation, political developments, and the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Read more

• UNOCA

  In December, François Louncény Fall, Special Representative and head of the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA), is expected to brief the Security Council on the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report on UNOCA and the implementation of the UN regional strategy to combat the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). Read more

• International Criminal Tribunals

  In December, the Security Council expects to hold its semi-annual debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT), which was established in 2010 to carry out the remaining essential functions of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) and the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) after their respective closures. The IRMCT’s president, Judge Carmel Agius, and prosecutor, Serge Brammertz, are expected to brief during the debate. They may also meet with the Informal Working Group on International Tribunals prior to this. No outcome is expected. Council members expect to receive the bi-annual assessment reports of the president and the prosecutor by 2 December. Read more

• Yemen

  In December, the Council will receive its monthly briefing on Yemen from Special Envoy Martin Griffiths. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock may brief on the humanitarian situation, and General Abhijit Guha, the head of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA) and chair of the Redeployment Coordination Committee (RCC), is likely to brief in consultations. Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In December, the Security Council will receive the semi-annual briefing of the ICC Prosecutor related to the court’s work on Darfur. Ambassador Joanna Wronecka (Poland), chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to provide the quarterly briefing to Council members on the Committee’s work. Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  In December, the Council is expected to extend for six months the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), which expires on 31 December. Ahead of the mandate renewal, the Department of Peace Operations (DPO) is expected to brief Council members in consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on UNDOF, due in December, and the most recent developments. Read more

• West Africa and the Sahel

  In December, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on intercommunal violence and terrorism in West Africa. Special Representative and head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) Mohammed Ibn Chambas is expected to brief. During the month, the Council is also expected to renew UNOWAS’ mandate for an additional three years. This is likely to be done through an exchange of letters between the President of the Security Council and the Secretary-General. UNOWAS’ current mandate expires on 31 December 2019. Read more

• Afghanistan

  In December, the Security Council is scheduled to hold its quarterly meeting on Afghanistan. Tadamichi Yamamoto, the Special Representative for Afghanistan and head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), is expected to brief on the latest Secretary-General’s report on UNAMA, due in December, and the most recent developments. Aisha Khurram, Afghanistan’s current Youth Representative to the UN, may also brief. Additionally, the Security Council will have to renew the mandate of the Monitoring Team assisting the 1988 Afghanistan Sanctions Committee, set to expire on 17 December. Read more

• South Sudan

  In December, the Council will receive a briefing on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on South Sudan. Ambassador Joanna Wronecka (Poland), chair of the 2206 South Sudan Sanctions Committee, is also expected to brief on the Committee’s work. Consultations are expected to follow the briefing. Read more

• Briefing by the Outgoing Chairs of the Security Council Subsidiary Bodies

  It has become a tradition that every December the outgoing chairs of subsidiary bodies have provided a briefing on their experience. Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In December, the Security Council will need to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) before it expires on 20 December. The 1533 Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) sanctions regime expires on 1 July 2020. Read more

• Iran

  In December, the Council is scheduled to receive the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 2231, which endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme. The Council also expects reports from the Joint Commission, established by the parties to the JCPOA to oversee its implementation, and from the Council’s 2231 facilitator, Ambassador Marc Pecsteen de Buytswerve (Belgium). Briefings are expected from Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, Pecsteen, and a representative of the EU in its capacity as coordinator of the Joint Commission. Read more