Haiti

Expected Council Action
The Secretary-General’s quarterly report on the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) is due in April. A presidential statement welcoming the holding of the second round of parliamentary elections, now scheduled for April, is likely.

Recent Developments
The second round of legislative elections, originally scheduled for 19 March 2006, was postponed due to delays in publishing the results of both the first round of legislative and presidential elections. At press time, the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) agreed on the new date of 21 April. The results of the runoff are scheduled for release on 28 April, paving the way for the new government to take power. Local and municipal elections will be held on 18 June under the proposed electoral calendar.

The delayed runoff also led to the postponement of President-elect René Préval’s inauguration from 29 March to 14 May since the Haitian constitution requires that presidential inaugurations occur in the presence of a sitting parliament. Given that it took several weeks for the official results of the first round to be published, there are fears that the president might not be sworn in before 14 May and that the municipal and local elections might not be held on 18 June.

In an open debate at the Council on 27 March, Préval emphasised that the support of the international community was necessary for Haiti’s long-term development and for the strengthening of state institutions.

Key Facts
The Security Council’s active engagement with Haiti dates back to the early 1990s, when a coup overthrew the democratically elected president Jean-Bertrand Aristide. In 1994 the Council authorised the use of force to restore the elected leader in resolution 940. Council-mandated missions remained on the ground for several years, though their scope increasingly narrowed before the final withdrawal in March 2000.

The situation in Haiti never stabilised. In early 2004, violent upheavals against the Haitian government led to President Aristide leaving the country that February. A Multilateral Interim Force (MIF) led by the US entered Haiti to ensure stability. It was replaced a few months later by MINUSTAH, with the mandate to secure a stable environment especially through reforming the Haitian police, supporting political process and monitoring human rights.

The transitional government agreed to hold elections in 2005. Regional actors-the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM)-undertook an important cooperation effort to support the electoral process. MINUSTAH’s troop level was temporarily increased in 2005 to prevent potential violence during the electoral period and subsequent political transition.

Key Issues
The short-term issue for the Council is to ensure that the electoral process moves forward. If necessary, the Council will pressure the CEP and the interim government for the elections to proceed.

The Secretary-General’s report is likely to reveal the following long-term issues in Haiti:

• strengthening the rule of law, especially with regards to the justice and correction systems;
• improving security through pursuing police reform; in addition, there may be comments on proposals that MINUSTAH’s security operations should be combined with humanitarian activities since meeting the basic needs of the poorest segment of the population could help to prevent unrest and crime;
• promoting good governance and institution-building at the central and local level and ensuring better distribution of authority and resources throughout the country;
• supporting economic and social development; and
• implementing disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programs.

A related issue is the implication for the long-term involvement of MINUSTAH in Haiti. Once the government is formed, discussion on a post-electoral strategy for MINUSTAH is likely. A contentious aspect may be the extent to which priority should be given to ensuring security or promoting development and how those two processes can be combined, given the Council’s focus on peace and security and the fact the development and donor communities are responsible for development.  It seems unlikely at this stage that the issue of referral to the Peacebuilding Commission will be raised.

Council Dynamics
The Group of Friends of Haiti (comprising thirteen countries including Council members France, Argentina and the US) has taken the lead on the issue. The group agrees on the long-term goals in Haiti and on the fact that the UN has a role to play after the electoral process is over.

Discussions within the Group have mainly focused on which approach to adopt toward re-establishing security in the Port-au-Prince neighbourhood of Cité Soleil. MINUSTAH, remains cautious, but a consensus has emerged on the necessity to combine security and humanitarian activities.

There also seems to be agreement on the necessity to provide political support to President-elect Préval as evidenced in his appearance before an open session of the Council in March.  His attempts to pursue both reconciliation and development are welcomed. It seems likely that the Council will be satisfied with Préval’s first initiatives of reaching out to the opposition, initiating a dialogue with the Special Representative of the Secretary-General Juan Gabriel Valdés, and respecting the constitutional process.

Options
In April, the Council has the following options:

• Adopting a presidential statement before the second round of elections to encourage a smooth process if problems start to emerge.
• Adopting a presidential statement welcoming the elections in order to congratulate the Haitians on the completion of the electoral process.
• Starting informal discussions on a revised mandate for the future UN role in Haiti.

Underlying Problems
Préval’s Lespwa party is considered the favourite in the legislative race, although a coalition government might be necessary due to the large number of political parties contesting the runoff. The stakes are still high. It is realistic to assume that Préval’s supporters will be reluctant to accept defeat in parliament since its composition will influence the choice of the prime minister. The risk of renewed tensions therefore remains.

Poverty and insecurity, fuelled by class divisions, remain the main long-term challenges for Préval. Also, human rights violations in the neighbouring Dominican Republic against Haitian nationals have raised fears of destabilisation and unrest in the border area.
Starting informal discussions on a revised mandate for the future UN role in Haiti.

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Other Relevant Facts

For historical background please refer to the December 2005 and February 2006 Forecast Reports.

Full forecast