December 2008 Monthly Forecast

Overview

Croatia will hold the presidency of the Council in December. December is always a very full month because of the numerous mandates that come due for renewal. In addition, the Council is likely to be under pressure to maintain an ongoing role with respect to the crisis in eastern DRC.

Croatia will host an open debate on Global Security and International Terrorism, scheduled for 9 December. Croatian President Stjepan Mesić is expected to preside. A presidential statement is a possible outcome. An open debate on protection of civilians, delayed from November at the request of OCHA, is also possible but pressure on time in December may make this impossible.

An open debate on the Middle East is also expected, as well as a debate on Burundi.

Developments in several situations will be closely watched. These include Somalia, DRC and Guinea-Bissau.

The Council will likely receive briefings on:

Also possible is a briefing on Central African Republic before the renewal of BONUCA’s mandate expiring on 31 December.

A briefing by theby the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Lord’s Resistance Army-Affected Areas, Joaquim Chissano, on the peace process between the Ugandan government and the LRA and his future role as envoy (Chissano’s mandate expires on 31 December) is also possible.

Formal meetings to adopt resolutions can be expected on:

The DRC: to renew the mandates of the peace operation there, MONUC and the sanctions Group of Experts, as well as the sanctions regime, which all expire on 31 December;

Two Arria formula meetings are expected in December. The first, which South Africa will be hosting is on responsibility to protect, scheduled for 1 December.

An Arria meeting on Chad is also likely early in the month. This is in conjunction with Council’s on-going discussions of the proposed UN military component to follow on the EU operation in Eastern Chad and Central African Republic. A decision on the military component, which was expected by 15 December, is likely to be delayed.

Full forecast

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