June 2010 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 May 2010
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AFRICA

Sudan

Expected Council Action
In June, the Council is expected to hold a high-level meeting on the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the Darfur peace process with the heads of the two operations in Sudan, Haile Menkerios and Ibrahim Gambari, AU-UN Joint Chief Mediator Djibril Bassolé and former South African President Thabo Mbeki, who headed the AU Panel on Darfur.

Also in June the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, is expected to brief the Council regarding Sudan and the chair of the Sudan Sanctions Committee is to brief the Council and present the mid-term report from its Panel of Experts.

No Council decision is expected. However, Council members are looking to these briefings to help them monitor developments in Sudan more closely in the coming months.

The mandates of the two peacekeeping operations in Sudan, UNAMID in Darfur and UNMIS in South Sudan, expire on 31 July 2010 and 30 April 2011 respectively. Sanctions and the mandate of the Panel of Experts expire on 15 October 2010.

Key Recent Developments
Continued clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) in North Darfur, South Darfur and West Darfur are again threatening security. These clashes have also reportedly led to more displacement of internally displaced persons (IDPs) living in camps near the areas of conflict.

Renewed abductions and attacks on peacekeepers have occurred in Darfur in recent months. The Secretary-General’s April report on the AU-UN Hybrid operation in Darfur (UNAMID) condemned these and urged all parties to ensure the safety and security of those working in Darfur.

On 18 May, three aid workers were abducted by unknown gunmen in a village near Nyala, South Darfur.

On 7 May, two Egyptian peacekeepers were killed and three wounded after their convoy was attacked by armed gunmen who opened fire without warning in a remote area in South Darfur. The Secretary-General called on the Sudanese government to launch an immediate investigation and apprehend those responsible for the attacks.

UNAMID’s freedom of movement continues to be restricted by all parties. The Secretary-General noted in April numerous instances when the mission was restricted.

In May, UNAMID brought together a large number of aid agencies working in the area to better coordinate their efforts in light of the current security situation.

On 10 May, the Tripartite Mechanism on Darfur was held in Addis Ababa. It was established in 2008 to build confidence between the AU, the UN and the Sudanese government. The AU Commissioner for Peace and Security, Ambassador Ramtane Lamamra; UN Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Alain Le Roy; the head of UNAMID, Ibrahim Gambari; and representatives from the Sudanese government participated in this meeting, which reviewed the latest security developments in Darfur and UNAMID’s current deployment.

On 8 May, representatives from the AU and the UN and the heads of UNAMID and UNMIS convened a consultative meeting on Sudan in Addis Ababa. Special envoys for Sudan from China, Finland, Japan, Norway, Sweden, Qatar, Italy, Russia, the UK and the US, as well as representatives from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, the League of Arab States, the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, the EU and some neighboring countries, participated. The meeting focused on the implementation of the CPA, post-referendum issues and a political solution to the conflict in Darfur.

Following April’s elections, reports of harassment of opposition leaders and censorship of newspapers continued. On 20 May, Farouk Abu Eissa, a leader of the opposition alliance, was detained and questioned about his call for the release of Hassan al-Turabi, the leader of the opposition Popular Congress Party (PCP), who was arrested on 15 May by National Intelligence and Security Forces (NISS). Many think Turabi’s arrest was sparked by his public rejection of the election results. Turabi’s party was one of the few opposition parties that participated in the April polls. The NISS also occupied the offices of the newspaper al-Rai al-Shaab, seen as aligned with the PCP, and arrested the executive manager and editors of the newspaper.

On 19 May, Sudanese security forces censored two papers. Ajras al-Huriya— which is allied to South Sudan’s main party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement—reported that censors from the intelligence services removed half of its contents. The paper also said it is facing five court cases filed by the intelligence services, the army and the police. The same day, the editor-in-chief of al-Sahafa said that pages and articles were removed before publication by security forces.

Several international groups have expressed concern that human rights violations and electoral irregularities had undermined the freedom and fairness of the vote throughout Sudan. Human Rights Watch urged Sudanese authorities to investigate human rights abuses immediately and bring those responsible to justice. It also urged international agencies and elections observers to monitor the post-election environment closely and to condemn human rights violations, intimidation and violence. The Carter Center and the EU—each had provided observers for the elections—made similar assessments. The Carter Center said that it had “observed important flaws and found that the process fell short of Sudan’s obligations and related international standards” while the EU commented that the elections had “struggled” to reach international standards. “They have not reached them all“ the EU added.

Key Issues
A key issue on Darfur is whether the Council can be more active in supporting UNAMID and the AU-UN Joint Chief Mediator in bringing the parties together to commit to the peace process. A related issue is what more can be done to unify the different armed movements. Some rebels’ refusal to participate in the process has thus far limited any progress towards the establishment of ceasefire arrangements and a comprehensive agreement in Darfur. It seems some innovative ideas to resolveissues related to access to land, compensation and reconciliation through an inclusive decision making process may be necessary to improve the momentum.

Another issue for the high-level meeting is to understand the real impact on UNAMID as its freedom of movement continues to be restricted. A related issue is whether Council action can be more helpful in supporting UNAMID and humanitarian aid agencies which provide assistance to those affected by the conflict.

A related issue is how to address the continued violations of the Council-imposed arms embargo, as attacks and counter attacks between the Government of Sudan and JEM impedes the peace process and affects the Darfurian population who continue to suffer from these attacks.

An issue for the North-South peace process is how the Council can support the parties in addressing the major outstanding issues in the full implementation of the CPA including:

  • creating conditions for peaceful referenda and post-referenda process;
  • establishment of functional commissions for both Abyei and South Sudan; and
  • management of security in the south.

A final issue is how to support comprehensive peace throughout Sudan and connecting the CPA, Darfur Peace Agreement and Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement. The Secretary-General’s April report on UNAMID suggested that elections could strengthen opportunities for the people of Sudan to play active roles in the political life of their country. To date the evidence suggests that the opposite may have occurred.

Options
One option in June is for Council members to simply absorb the various briefings.

Another option is a statement which might highlight:

  • concerns of the challenges faced by UNAMID in the implementation of its mandate;
  • the need for UNAMID to work with all parties to enhance the security of civilians and IDPs in Darfur;
  • support for a more proactive role in the ongoing peace process; and
  • taking more of a lead in promoting the normalisation of relations between Chad and Sudan.

Council Dynamics
Council members support the current mediation efforts but are well aware of the challenges in achieving lasting peace in the region. There is a firm condemnation of the attacks on UNAMID peacekeepers and full support in general terms for UNAMID. But it is unclear how far the idea of a more proactive Council role on Darfur in the post-election situation has been tested.

Most Council members seem to believe that any future peace agreement in Darfur must take the interest of all Darfurians into account and address more equitably the problem of political and economic marginalisation in Darfur.

Council members are encouraged by the efforts taken by the Sudanese and Chadian governments to improve relations following the Doha Agreement, but others are concerned that the end to cross-border violence will not improve security for displaced persons on either side of the border.

Council members welcome the efforts of regional countries in supporting the Sudan peace process both for the CPA and for the peace process in Darfur.

The UK is the lead country on Darfur in the Council.

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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1919 (29 April 2010) renewed UNMIS.
  • S/RES/1891 (13 October 2009) renewed the mandate of the Darfur Sanctions Panel of Experts for another year.
  • S/RES/1881 (30 July 2009) renewed UNAMID.
  • S/RES/1593 (31 March 2005) referred the situation in Darfur to the ICC.
  • S/RES/1591 (29 March 2005) and S/RES/1556 (30 July 2004) imposed sanctions.

Selected Presidential Statement

  • S/PRST/2009/13 (8 May 2009) called on Chad and Sudan to respect and fully implement their mutual commitments.

Latest Secretary-General’s Reports

Selected Security Council Meeting Record

  • S/PV.6251 (21 December 2009) was the briefing by former South African President Thabo Mbeki and AU Commission Chair Jean Ping on the recommendations of the AU High-Level Panel on Darfur.

Other

  • SG/SM/12880 (7 May 2010) was the Secretary-General’s statement condemning attacks on peacekeepers in Darfur.
  • SC/9920 (7 May 2010) was a Security Council press statement condemning recent attacks on UNAMID peacekeepers.

Other Relevant Facts

UNAMID: Joint AU-UN Special Representative for Darfur

Ibrahim Gambari (Nigeria)

Joint AU-UN Chief Mediator

Djibril Yipènè Bassolé (Burkina Faso)

UNAMID: Force Commander

Lieutenant General Patrick Nyamvumba (Rwanda)

UNAMID: Size, Composition and Cost

  • Maximum authorised strength: up to 19,555 military personnel, 3,772 police and 19 formed police units (total police 6,432)
  • Main troop contributors: Nigeria, Rwanda, Egypt and Ethiopia
  • Military Strength as of 15 April 2010: 17,157 military personnel
  • Police Strength as of 15 April 2010: 4,677 police personnel
  • Cost: 1 July 2009 – 30 June 2010: $1,598.94 million

UNAMID: Duration

31 July 2007 to present; mandate expires 31 July 2010.

UNMIS: Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission

Haile Menkerios (South Africa)

UNMIS: Force Commander

Major-General Paban Jung Thapa (Nepal)

UNMIS: Size, Composition and Cost

  • Maximum authorised strength: up to 10,000 military and 715 police personnel
  • Main troop contributors: India, Pakistan and Bangladesh
  • Military Strength as of 28 February: 9,867 military personnel
  • Police Strength as of 28 February: 674 police personnel
  • Cost: 1 July 2009 – 30 June 2010: $958.35 million

UNMIS: Duration

24 March 2005 to present; mandate expires 30 April 2011.

Sanctions Committee Chairman

Thomas Mayr-Harting (Austria)

Full forecast

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