May 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 April 2024
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Status Update since our April Forecast

Children and Armed Conflict

On 3 April, the Security Council held a briefing on children and armed conflict (S/PV.9594), titled “addressing the consequences of the denial of humanitarian access for children”. Malta, the chair of the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict, convened the meeting as one of the signature events of its April Council presidency. Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict Virginia Gamba and UNICEF Deputy Executive Director for Humanitarian Action and Supply Operations Edward “Ted” Chaiban briefed. The Council was also briefed by Atim Niger-Thomas, Executive Director of Authentique Memorial Empowerment Foundation, a Cameroon-based non-governmental organisation (NGO) that seeks to protect the rights of children and other vulnerable groups.

Arria-formula Meeting on Cybersecurity

On 4 April, Security Council members held an Arria-formula meeting titled “Evolving Cyber Threat Landscape and its Implications for the Maintenance of International Peace and Security”. The meeting was organised by the Republic of Korea and co-hosted by Japan and the US. The briefers were Deputy to the High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Adedeji Ebo; Director of the UN Institute for Disarmament Research Robin Geiss; and Valerie Kennedy, Director of Intelligence Solutions for Investigations and Special Programmes at Chainalysis, a blockchain analysis firm.

Myanmar

On 4 April, the Council convened for an open briefing on Myanmar (S/PV.9595). The briefers were: Khaled Khiari, the Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations; and Lisa Doughten, the Director of the Financing and Partnerships Division of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Malaysia participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. The meeting marked the first occasion that the Council has held an open briefing on Myanmar since February 2019.

Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

On 5 April, the Security Council held a briefing on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9596). Algeria, Guyana, and Slovenia requested the meeting to discuss the risk of famine and attacks against humanitarian workers in Gaza following the killing on 1 April of seven members of the NGO World Central Kitchen in an Israeli airstrike. OCHA Head in Geneva and Director of the Coordination Division Ramesh Rajasingham and President and Chief Executive Officer of Save the Children US Janti Soeripto briefed.

On 8 April, Security Council members held closed consultations, followed by an open meeting, to discuss the Palestinian request, conveyed in a 2 April letter to the Secretary-General, for renewed consideration of its 23 September 2011 application for UN membership. The meeting was held under the “Admission of new members” agenda item (S/PV.9597). The Secretary-General transmitted the request to the Security Council by letter of 3 April (S/2024/286).

At the 8 April meeting, Malta, as the Council’s president for the month of April, referred the issue of the application to the Security Council’s standing Committee on the Admission of New Members. The Committee met on 8 and 11 April to deliberate on the Palestinian request. On 16 April, the Committee transmitted a final copy of its report to the Security Council, stating that it had concluded its work but had been unable to reach a unanimous recommendation on the Palestinian application.

On 17 April, the Security Council held an open briefing on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9607). Commissioner-General of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) Philippe Lazzarini briefed. The meeting was scheduled after Jordan requested that a ministerial-level Council meeting be convened on the challenges faced by UNRWA in a 1 April letter to the president of the Security Council.

On 18 April, the Security Council held its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9608). The debate was resumed and completed on 18 and 25 April (S/PV.9608 Resumption 1 and Resumption 2). Maltese Foreign Minister Ian Borg chaired the meeting. Secretary-General António Guterres briefed. In the evening, the Security Council voted on a draft resolution authored by Algeria recommending the admission to the UN of the State of Palestine (S/PV.9609). The draft text failed to be adopted owing to a veto by the US. All other members—except the UK and Switzerland, which abstained—voted in favour of the text.

On 24 April, the Security Council held a briefing, followed by closed consultations, on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9617). Senior Humanitarian and Reconstruction Coordinator (SHRC) for Gaza Sigrid Kaag briefed. This was the first time that Kaag briefed the Council in the open chamber. Previously, she briefed in closed consultations on 30 January and 7 March. The meeting was held in accordance with Security Council resolution 2720. Adopted on 22 December 2023, resolution 2720 requested the SHRC to provide an initial report on her work to the Security Council within 20 days and thereafter every 90 days until 30 September.

Colombia

On 9 April, the Security Council held an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Colombia (S/PV.9598). Special Representative and Head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu briefed on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission (S/2024/267). The Council also received a briefing from Marcela Sánchez Buitrago, director of Colombia Diversa, a non-governmental organization (NGO) that promotes and defends the rights of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Intersex (LGBTI) persons. Colombia, represented by Minister of Foreign Affairs ad interim Luis Gilberto Murillo Urrutia, participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

On 15 April, Council members issued a press statement reiterating their full support for the peace process in Colombia and stressing the importance of ensuring the comprehensive implementation of the 2016 Final Agreement for Ending the Conflict and Building a Stable and Lasting Peace between the government of Colombia and the former rebel group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC-EP) (SC/15663). They further encouraged the prompt translation of plans and policies for the promotion of the 2016 agreement into implementation on the ground in conflict-affected areas. Among other issues, the statement emphasised the need to promote implementation of the peace agreement’s ethnic chapter and encouraged state institutions to reinvigorate efforts to “protect former combatants, social leaders and people in all their diversity, fight impunity for crimes against them and combat the criminal structures responsible for violence”.

In April, a report on the Security Council’s 7-11 February visiting mission to Colombia was published (S/2024/258).

Territorial Dispute between Guyana and Venezuela

On 9 April, at Guyana’s request, the Security Council convened for a private meeting under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item to discuss recent developments regarding the territorial dispute between Guyana and Venezuela over the Essequibo region in Guyana (S/PV.9599). Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča briefed the Council. Venezuela, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Haiti, on behalf of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

On 15 April, Council members issued a press statement expressing their concern about the possible escalation of tensions between Guyana and Venezuela, urging the parties to exercise “maximum restraint”, and reminding them of their obligations to comply with the Order of Provisional Measures issued by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on 1 December 2023 (SC/15665).

Ukraine

On 11 April, the Security Council held a briefing on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine at the request of Ecuador and France (S/PV.9600). Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča and OCHA Director of Operations and Advocacy Edem Wosornu briefed at the meeting.

On 12 April, the Council convened for an open briefing under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9601). Russia requested the meeting to discuss the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine. Chief of the Conventional Arms Branch at the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA) Ivor Fung and activist and political commentator Karen Kwiatkowski briefed.

On 15 April, the Security Council convened for an open briefing under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9604). Slovenia and the US—the co-penholders on political issues in Ukraine—supported by France, requested the meeting, which focused on the safety and security of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in the city of Enerhodar. It appears that Russia expressed approval for holding the meeting, noting the alarming nature of the situation at the nuclear power plant. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi briefed the Council. Latvia, Poland, and Ukraine participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

Iran-Israel

On 14 April, the Security Council convened an emergency meeting on the airborne attack that Iran launched against Israel on 13 April (S/PV.9602). Israel requested the meeting, which was held under the agenda item “The situation in the Middle East”. Secretary-General António Guterres briefed Council members. Israel, Iran, and Syria participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. Following the meeting, the US proposed a draft press statement, but it was not issued due to a lack of consensus among Council members.

Western Sahara

On 16 April, Council members received a briefing in closed consultations on the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). The Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy to Western Sahara Staffan de Mistura and Special Representative and Head of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) Alexander Ivanko briefed.

“The Role of Young Persons in Addressing Security Challenges in the Mediterranean”

On 17 April, the Security Council held a ministerial-level debate on “The role of young persons in addressing security challenges in the Mediterranean” under the “Maintenance of international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9606). The debate was resumed and completed on 22 and 26 April (S/PV.9606 Resumption 1 and Resumption 2). Ian Borg, Malta’s Minister for Foreign and European Affairs and Trade, chaired the meeting, which was one of the signature events of Malta’s April Council presidency. The briefers were: Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, Secretary General of the Union for the Mediterranean Nasser Kamel, and the regional lead of the Middle East and North Africa coalition on Youth, Peace and Security, Sarra Messaoudi.

Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)

On 19 April, Security Council members held a briefing on the activities of the OSCE (S/PV.9610). Ian Borg, Malta’s Minister for Foreign, Trade and European Affairs, briefed in his capacity as the current Chairperson-in-Office (CiO) of the OSCE, outlining the OSCE’s priorities for 2023. At the meeting, several Council members expressed support for the OSCE’s activities and contributions to regional stability.

Sudan

On 19 April, the Security Council convened for an open briefing to discuss the situation in Sudan, at the request of the UK, the penholder on the file (S/PV.9611). The briefers were: Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, Director of OCHA’s Operations and Advocacy Division Edem Wosornu, and Chair of the AU High-Level Panel on Sudan Mohamed Ibn Chambas.

On 27 April, Council members issued a press statement expressing concern about the escalating tensions and military operations around El-Fasher, the capital city of North Darfur state. Members called on the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces to end the build-up of military forces, take steps to de-escalate the situation, and comply with their obligations under international humanitarian law. They reiterated their call for an immediate cessation of hostilities, leading to a sustainable ceasefire. In addition, they urged all member states to “refrain from external interference which seeks to foment conflict and instability and instead to support efforts for a durable peace” and reminded the Sudanese warring parties and all member states to comply with the arms embargo obligations, imposed by resolution 1556 of 30 July 2004 and most recently renewed by resolution 2676 of 8 March 2023.

Kosovo

On 22 April, the Council held its first regular briefing this year on the situation in Kosovo (S/PV.9612). Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) Caroline Ziadeh briefed on the latest Secretary-General’s report (S/2024/282). Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and President Vjosa Osmani of Kosovo participated under rules 37 and 39 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure, respectively.

At the meeting, Russia raised a point of order concerning the status of Osmani’s participation under rule 39. Russia argued that Osmani incorrectly referred to the individuals accompanying her as members of her delegation, stating that her participation as a briefer did not entail having a delegation. Russia emphasised that these individuals should not be seated behind her but in the side seats of the chamber, asserting that Osmani’s presentation of these individuals as part of a delegation was a violation of the Council’s procedural rules. Malta responded that members of civil society who participate under rule 39 are allowed to bring a delegation, as this is the procedure under which they were accredited by the UN Protocol and Liaison Service.

Haiti

On 22 April, the Security Council held an open briefing on Haiti (S/PV.9613). Special Representative and Head of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) María Isabel Salvador briefed on recent developments in the country and the Secretary-General’s latest quarterly report on BINUH. UNICEF Executive Director and Principal Advocate on Haiti for the UN Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) Catherine Russell and UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Executive Director Ghada Fathi Waly also briefed. The Dominican Republic, represented by Minister of Foreign Affairs Roberto Alvarez Gil, and Haiti participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

Women, Peace and Security

On 23 April, the Security Council convened for its annual open debate on conflict-related sexual violence, which this year was titled “Preventing conflict-related sexual violence through demilitarization and gender-responsive arms control” (S/PV.9614). The meeting was chaired by Maltese Deputy Prime Minister Christopher Fearne. Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict Pramila Patten, UN Women Goodwill Ambassador Danai Gurira, and President and Founder of the Darfur Women Action Group Niemat Ahmadi briefed.

Great Lakes Region (DRC)

On 24 April, the Security Council held a briefing on the Great Lakes region (S/PV.9615). The meeting had a particular focus on the Women, Peace, and Security  (WPS) agenda, highlighting the role of women in peace processes. Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for the Great Lakes Region Huang Xia briefed on the Secretary-General’s latest semi-annual report on the implementation of the 2013 Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the region (PSC-F) (S/2024/278). Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Deputy Emergency Relief Coordinator Joyce Msuya also briefed the Council, focusing on the humanitarian situation in the region, particularly in eastern DRC. Additionally, a woman civil society representative from the DRC briefed the Council describing the impact of the conflict in eastern DRC on women who, she said, have become “objects of unspeakable suffering, targeted with mutilation, rape and other forms of unimaginable violence, often perpetrated in front of their families”. The representatives of Angola, DRC and Rwanda participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

Non-Proliferation

On 24 April, the Security Council voted on a draft resolution on weapons of mass destruction in outer space (S/2024/302), which was prepared by Japan and the US (S/PV.9616). The draft resolution affirmed the obligation of all states parties to fully comply with the Outer Space Treaty, including not to place in orbit around the Earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), install such weapons on celestial bodies, or station such weapons in outer space in any other manner. It also called on member states not to develop nuclear weapons or any other kind of WMD specifically designed to be placed in orbit around the Earth.

Prior to the vote on the draft resolution, the Council voted on an amendment to the text proposed by China and Russia. The amendment called on member states to take measures to prevent the placement of weapons of any kind in outer space and to seek through negotiations the early elaboration of a legally binding multilateral agreement on the matter.

The draft amendment failed to be adopted because it did not garner the requisite support. It received seven votes in favour (Algeria, China, Ecuador, Guyana, Mozambique, Russia, and Sierra Leone), seven votes against (France, Japan, Malta, the Republic of Korea, Slovenia, the UK, and the US), and one abstention (Switzerland).

The draft resolution (S/2024/302) failed to be adopted owing to a veto cast by Russia. All other members—except China, which abstained—voted in favour of the text. The draft resolution was co-sponsored by 65 UN member states.

Following the vote, Russia announced its intention to put forward a draft resolution on the prevention of an arms race in outer space.

The Nord Stream Incident

On 26 April, the Council convened for an open briefing under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9619). Russia requested the meeting to discuss the 26 September 2022 explosions that caused physical damage to the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea. The briefers were Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča, Chief of the Office of the Under-Secretary-General of Counter-Terrorism Oguljeren Niyazberdiyeva, and political commentator Larry C. Johnson.

 

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