August 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 July 2024
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
AFRICA

Libya

Expected Council Action     

In August, the Security Council will hold its bimonthly briefing on the situation in Libya. Deputy Special Representative and Political Officer in Charge of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) Stephanie Koury will brief the Council on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country and on the Secretary-General’s most recent report on UNSMIL. The chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Kazuyuki Yamazaki (Japan), is also expected to brief on the committee’s activities.    

Key Recent Developments   

The political impasse in Libya continues between the UN-recognised Government of National Unity (GNU), based in Tripoli and led by Prime Minister Hamid Mohammed Dbeibah, and the eastern-based Government of National Stability (GNS), led by Prime Minister Osama Hamad and aligned with the House of Representatives (HoR) and the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) under the command of General Khalifa Haftar. The prolonged stalemate involving the rival governments has persisted since the indefinite postponement of elections that had been scheduled for December 2021 and is a key driver of Libya’s political, security, and economic instability.    

Recent efforts by both the UN and national actors to facilitate agreement on a new roadmap for national elections to unify the country’s divided governments have not borne fruit.  The joint 6+6 committee—which was established by the HoR and the GNU-affiliated High State Council (HSC) to draft electoral laws to enable elections and includes six representatives from each body—presented its initial draft legislation in June 2023. Because of persistent disagreement about certain provisions in that draft, however, the committee subsequently amended the proposed legislation in September 2023. The HoR approved this version, but HSC leader Mohamed Takala rejected it, instead endorsing the previous draft. Takala is considered a close ally of Dbeibah. 

A subsequent attempt by Special Representative Abdoulaye Bathily to mediate an agreement between the stakeholders was unsuccessful. (Bathily has since stepped down.) Parallel to that effort, the heads of the HoR, the HSC, and the Presidential Council—which was established under the 2015 Libyan Political Agreement to serve as the country’s head of state—met on 10 March in Cairo under the auspices of the League of Arab States (LAS). In a joint statement following the meeting, the three leaders said that they had agreed on the need to establish a unified interim government to organise elections and had decided to set up a technical committee “within a specified period of time” to build consensus on the 6+6 committee’s legislation, consider amendments, and resolve contested issues. The talks did not include Dbeibah, who has opposed the establishment of a new interim government prior to elections.    

The heads of the HoR, HSC, and Presidential Council were expected to attend another meeting hosted by the LAS in mid-July to further develop their proposal. However, these discussions were put on hold after the HoR on 10 July unilaterally approved an additional $18.3 billion budget for the GNS, supplementing the original annual budget that the HoR had passed in April, which its lawmakers subsequently deemed insufficient. Funds for the additional budget would be drawn from the Central Bank of Libya, the country’s sole depository for state revenues, which services both governments. Takala opposed the adoption of the additional budget, which he argued had no legal effect without the HSC’s approval, and reportedly withdrew from the scheduled follow-up meeting of the HoR, HSC, and Presidential Council under the LAS format.  

Instead, on 18 July members of the HoR and HSC met independently in Cairo, outside the structures of the LAS. In an outcome statement, the lawmakers agreed on the need to establish a unified interim government, to hold elections according to the electoral laws already issued by the HoR, and to develop a joint electoral roadmap on this basis. In a 20 July statement, UNSMIL took note of the meeting and welcomed steps in support of the political process towards elections but reiterated its previous calls for such steps to be “inclusive” and involve all relevant stakeholders “to ensure the outcomes lead to a politically implementable solution”—an apparent reference to the GNU’s continued absence from the talks. 

Regarding the security situation, the 2020 ceasefire agreement continues to hold. However, sporadic violence has persisted between criminal groups and rival militias in the country’s western region, primarily in the coastal town of Zawiya, where one civilian was reportedly killed and 22 injured in clashes in mid-May. On 1 July, authorities re-opened the nearby Ras Jdir border crossing into Tunisia after a three-month closure following repeated confrontations between local authorities and GNU-affiliated security forces. Independent analysts have cited control over illicit economic activities such as drug smuggling and human trafficking as the main source of these tensions in the region. 

On 16 July, Libya’s High National Elections Commission (HNEC) announced that it had completed the first phase of the voter registration process for the country’s municipal elections. This phase of the process was open to 60 municipalities and registered over 210,000 voters after HNEC twice extended the registration period to facilitate higher-than-expected participation. In a statement, UNSMIL congratulated HNEC for its achievement in “challenging circumstances” and commended those who registered to vote for demonstrating their commitment to “choosing their local leaders”. The statement further urged Libyan authorities to provide the necessary resources to facilitate the next steps in the municipal electoral process, and it encouraged HNEC and other Libyan institutions to continue efforts to increase the participation of women, who currently make up 29 percent of registered voters. The second phase of the registration process for the remaining municipalities will begin after the full results of the first phase have been published and verified. The municipal elections are expected to take place later this year, although a specific date has not yet been set. 

Women, Peace, and Security 

On 25 June, the Informal Experts Group (IEG) on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) met on the situation in Libya. Deputy Special Representative for Political Affairs and Officer-in-Charge of UNSMIL Stephanie Koury briefed. Among other issues, Koury and Council members apparently discussed women’s participation in the upcoming municipal elections as both voters and candidates, and efforts to guarantee women’s safe participation in a context where politically active women have faced threats and violence, including sexual violence. IEG members also inquired about UN efforts to counter restrictions and reprisals against civil society in Libya and strategies to support accountability for gender-based crimes. It seems that other issues discussed at the meeting included arrests and detentions of Libyans, including women, for exercising their right to freedom of expression, and concerns raised by women human rights defenders (WHRDs) about reprisals for engaging or trying to engage with the UN.  

UN Women, as the IEG Secretariat, apparently recommended that the Security Council retain all existing gender-related language from resolution 2702 in its upcoming decisions on Libya, including provisions on the prevention and response to conflict-related sexual violence. It seems that UN Women also recommended that the Council condemn and call for accountability for any threats, attacks and killings of women participating in public life, including WHRDs. UN Women further recommended requesting UNSMIL to prioritise activities related to the protection and promotion of women’s rights, and to monitor and report on threats and reprisals against WHRDs. 

Human Rights-Related Developments  

On 9 July, the UN Human Rights Council (HRC) conducted an interactive dialogue on the report of the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) on the technical assistance and capacity-building that it has provided to Libya (A/HRC/56/70).  

The report noted that Libya continued to experience an accountability deficit, marked by the erosion of the rule of law, including attacks on judges, prosecutors and lawyers, due process concerns, and legislative enactments undermining the independence of the judiciary. The report also found that migrants, refugees, and asylum-seekers continued to experience gross and widespread human rights violations and abuses at the hands of state and non-state actors.  

The report indicated that the absence of a comprehensive human rights-based national reconciliation and transitional justice process has allowed cycles of violence and impunity to persist. OHCHR recommended immediate steps to protect and promote the rights of women, human rights defenders, civil society actors, journalists, intellectuals, and other persons at heightened risk of human rights violations and abuses.  

On 11 July, during the same session, the HRC adopted a resolution (A/HRC/RES/56/16) requesting OHCHR to continue to provide technical assistance and capacity-building to improve human rights in Libya 

Key Issues and Options      

Supporting political momentum towards national elections to unify Libya’s divided governments remains the key issue for the Security Council. In this context, an important objective for the Council is to help foster common political ground between the country’s rival governments to reach an inclusive agreement on electoral laws, including the possible establishment of a unified interim government to organise the elections.  

To receive additional perspectives on the political process in Libya, especially women’s participation, the Council could consider inviting a woman civil society representative to participate in the August briefing. A civil society briefer could also shed additional light on the human rights situation in the country. It is essential that members and the UN take all possible measures to keep briefers safe, in consultation with the briefer, including carrying out risk assessments, developing protection plans, and responding to any reprisals. 

Following the resignation of Special Representative Bathily in April, another issue for the Council is the Secretary-General’s appointment of his successor. When former Special Envoy Jan Kubiš resigned in November 2021, it took nearly a year to identify a successor, leading to Bathily’s appointment in September 2022. (Resolution 2629 of 29 April 2022 changed UNSMIL’s leadership position from a Special Envoy to a Special Representative.) Several Council members have urged a quicker appointment this time, although political differences may again complicate the process, and the Secretary-General had not yet officially nominated a candidate at the time of writing. 

Council and Wider Dynamics      

Council members remain united on the need for a Libyan-led, inclusive political process resulting in elections that will help to restore political, security, and economic stability to the country. They also remain broadly supportive of the UN’s mediation role towards this end.    

Broader geopolitical tensions still influence Council dynamics with respect to Libya, however. The US and other Western members remain concerned about Russia’s presence in the eastern part of the country that is under Haftar’s control, which has reportedly included recent arms shipments to the port of Tobruk. For its part, Russia routinely blames Libya’s current instability on the NATO-led military intervention in 2011 and accuses Western countries of seeking to exploit Libya’s oil reserves for economic gain.      

The UK is the penholder on Libya.  

Sign up for SCR emails
UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA
 
Security Council Resolutions
31 MAY 2024S/RES/2733 This resolution renewed for one year the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations, to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya that they have reasonable grounds to believe are violating the arms embargo.
30 OCTOBER 2023S/RES/2702 This resolution extended UNSMIL’s mandate until 31 October 2024.
26 FEBRUARY 2011S/RES/1970 This resolution referred the situation in Libya to the ICC, imposed an arms embargo and targeted sanctions (assets freeze and travel ban) and established a sanctions committee.
Secretary-General’s Report
9 APRIL 2024S/2024/301 This was the 120-day report on UNSMIL.

 

Subscribe to receive SCR publications