Somalia
Expected Council Action
In August, the Security Council is expected to extend the authorisation of the African Union (AU) Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which expires on 12 August.
Council members are expected to receive a written update from the Secretary-General by 31 August on the modalities and timeline for the transition of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) to the UN Country Team, as requested by the Council in a 16 May letter.
The mandate of UNSOM is set to expire on 31 October and was most recently renewed by resolution 2705 of 31 October 2023.
Key Recent Developments
In a 21 June communiqué, the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) endorsed the establishment of a new AU-led and UN-authorised mission for Somalia in support of Somalia’s federal government following the expected departure of ATMIS in December. It decided that this mission must be given a strong political mandate, with its scope, size, posture, composition, and duration aligning with the country’s security threats. The AUPSC requested the AU Commission (the organisation’s secretariat) to develop financing options for this mission in consultation with the UN, including through Security Council resolution 2719 of 21 December 2023 on the financing of AU-led peace support operations (AUPSOs). It also requested the AU Commission to submit by the end of July a concept of operations (CONOPs), including the mandate, configuration, and duration of the new mission, as well as timelines for the transition from ATMIS, in consultation with the Somali government, ATMIS and other relevant stakeholders.
On 28 June, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2741, reauthorising ATMIS and extending the drawdown of 2,000 ATMIS personnel until 12 August. The resolution encouraged the AU Commission to include benchmarks in the CONOPs, with clear indicators and milestones to measure progress and a comprehensive exit strategy. (For background and more information, see the Somalia brief in our June Monthly Forecast and 28 June What’s in Blue story.)
On 17 July, a nine-member AU delegation concluded a four-day visit to Somalia. During the visit, the delegation met with officials of ATMIS, the Somali government, and the troop-contributing countries (TCCs) as well as members of the Core Security Partners Group—the EU, the UN, Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, the UK, and the US. The discussions apparently focused on the size, mandate, timelines, and exit strategy of the post-ATMIS mission.
Tensions continued between Ethiopia and Somalia against the backdrop of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a self-proclaimed republic in the northern region of Somalia, on 1 January. (For background, see the Somalia brief in our February 2024 Monthly Forecast and 28 January and 22 June What’s in Blue stories.)
On 1 July, the foreign ministers of Ethiopia and Somalia convened in Ankara for mediation talks facilitated by Türkiye. Both parties engaged in separate discussions with Türkiye to address their differences and “explore perspectives towards addressing them within a mutually acceptable framework”. They further agreed to hold a second round of discussions on 2 September. However, it appears that the talks did not yield significant progress with both sides continuing their truculent rhetoric thereafter. In a 4 July address to Parliament, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stressed the importance of sea access to the country’s economy and claimed that Ethiopia signed the 1 January MoU only after all its neighbouring countries, including Somalia, rejected its request for support. On the other hand, Somali President Hassan Sheik Mohamud said, in remarks to the joint session of his country’s Parliament on 6 July, that “the Ethiopian government continues to evade its responsibility for its diplomatic misstep…and has never engaged with us in a neighbourly manner to resolve the current issue”. He further claimed that Türkiye had proposed mediation at Ethiopia’s request; however, Ethiopia’s position remained unchanged, which led to the postponement of talks.
On 15 July, local Marehaan clan militia ambushed and looted a convoy of trucks transporting heavy weapons near the town of Abudwaaq in central Somalia. The weapons reportedly included machine guns, anti-aircraft weapons, and rocket-propelled grenades. The origin of these weapons remains contested, but reports suggest that the convoy crossed into Somalia from Ethiopia and was escorted by personnel from the Somali National Intelligence Agency. The clashes apparently resulted in the deaths of at least five people, with some reports indicating a death toll as high as 20. The incident has raised significant concerns amidst the potential for these weapons to be acquired by Al-Shabaab, a terrorist group affiliated with Al-Qaida, as well as escalating inter-clan conflicts within the country. While some reports have linked the arms shipment to a political leader in Somalia’s Galmudug state, Somali officials maintain that government security forces seized the weapons from illegal weapons traders. The Council lifted the arms embargo on the Somali government through resolution 2741 of 1 December 2023, adopted unanimously. (For more information, see our 1 December 2023 What’s in Blue story.)
On 18 July, Somali President Mohamud convened an extraordinary meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) to address the looting of the weapons convoy. A press release issued after the meeting said that the NSC had instructed the Ministry of Internal Security to submit a detailed report and recommendations within two weeks, including identifying those responsible and proposing strict measures to prevent similar incidents. The NSC also agreed to impose a total ban on the trade, smuggling, and any other business related to weapons and ammunition within the country by non-state actors.
On 22 July, clashes broke out between Somali security forces and Al-Shabaab militants in the west and south of Kismayo town in Jubaland state. According to media reports, the fighting erupted after the militants carried out coordinated attacks against military bases manned by federal and regional forces in three villages in the state, which were captured from Al-Shabaab earlier in July. The Somali Defense Ministry claimed that the forces repulsed the attack and, in a counter-offensive, killed more than 80 militants, while the Jubaland regional forces reported the number of militants killed to be approximately 135.
Key Issues and Options
The key issue for Council members in August will be the reauthorisation of the ATMIS mandate, which was extended until 12 August pursuant to resolution 2741. A related issue is the ATMIS drawdown process and post-ATMIS security arrangements. Council members are expected to convene a meeting upon receipt of the CONOPs for the post-ATMIS mission, which was anticipated to be submitted to the Council by 31 July, to review it and discuss subsequent steps.
Regarding the ATMIS mandate, the likely option for Council members is to reauthorise ATMIS and extend the drawdown of 2,000 troops until the end of September. In the same resolution, the Council could request the Secretary-General to work with the AU and other relevant stakeholders to finalise the overall design of the follow-on mission, provide a cost estimate, and articulate a range of options for financing the mission, including through resolution 2719. The Council could also ask the Secretary-General, jointly with the AU and in consultation with relevant stakeholders, to produce a consolidated CONOPs for the follow-on mission as well as the role and responsibilities of the UN Support Office in Somalia.
The other important issue for Council members is the future of UNSOM. The Council is likely to be guided by Somalia’s request as contained in its letters circulated to members on 8 and 10 May, the Secretary-General’s written update, which is expected by 31 August, and the various discussions on post-ATMIS security arrangements. In his remarks during the 24 June Council meeting on Somalia, Acting Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia and Head of UNSOM James Swan said that a joint technical committee comprising senior officials from Somalia’s federal government and the UN had been established to outline the planning process for the transition. The committee held its first meeting on 22 June.
Council Dynamics
Council members support the Somali government’s priorities and recognise the many challenges the country faces, including the persistent insecurity caused by the terrorist activities of Al-Shabaab. They also support ongoing efforts to fight the group. Some members, however, believe that a security approach will not be sufficient and underscore the need to make progress in governance, justice, and economic reforms. Other Council members emphasise the need for progress in implementing the Somali Transition Plan, including national force generation.
Although Council members seem to agree on continuing security support to Somalia post-ATMIS, views differ on how such efforts should be financed. The US is apparently not keen to consider a follow-on mission in Somalia within the framework of resolution 2719. Some other Council members also share this view. These members seem to believe that there is a lack of clarity on the modalities of implementing resolution 2719, including burden-sharing. Apparently, the US preference is to apply the resolution to an entirely new AUPSO with a narrow set of tasks and a defined timeline. The EU, a major financial contributor to ATMIS, advocates a sustainable financing model based on diversified contributions and a significant element of cost-sharing, including the possible use of the AU Peace Fund and Crisis Reserve Facility.
| Security Council Resolutions | |
| 28 June 2024S/RES/2741 | This resolution extended the authorisation of ATMIS until 12 August. |
| 21 December 2023S/RES/2719 | This was a resolution on the financing of African Union (AU)-led peace support operations (AUPSOs). |
| Security Council Meeting Records | |
| 24 June 2024S/PV.9665 | This was a meeting on the situation in Somalia. |
