August 2024 Monthly Forecast

AFRICA

Sudan

Expected Council Action   

In August, the Security Council will receive the semi-annual briefing of International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Karim Asad Ahmad Khan on the ICC’s Darfur-related activities. 

Background and Key Recent Developments  

More than 17 years after the Council’s ICC referral on the situation in Darfur, through resolution 1593 of 31 March 2005, the first trial opened on 5 April 2022 with the case of Prosecutor v. Ali Muhammad Ali Abd-Al-Rahman (“Ali Kushayb”). Abd-Al-Rahman, reportedly a former leader of the Janjaweed militia, is accused of 31 counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly committed between August 2003 and approximately April 2004 in Darfur. The prosecution presented evidence from 81 witnesses during the trial and concluded its case on 28 February 2023. Subsequently, the defence for Abd-Al-Rahman made its opening statement from 19 to 20 October 2023 before Trial Chamber I of the ICC, following which the defence proceeded to call witnesses and present its case. Between 14 January 2022 and 6 May, the Trial Chamber authorised the participation of 1,331 victims in the trial proceedings. (For background, see the brief on Sudan in our January Monthly Forecast.) 

Four arrest warrants issued by the ICC remain outstanding—against Omar Al Bashir, former Sudanese President; Ahmad Muhammad Harun, former Sudanese Minister of State for the Interior; Abdel Raheem Muhammad Hussein, former Sudanese Minister of National Defence; and Abdallah Banda Abakaer Nourain, commander-in-chief of the Justice and Equality Movement at the time of the warrant. Pursuant to resolution 1593 and the subsequent orders of the ICC, Sudan remains under an obligation to surrender the four remaining suspects to the court.   

In his 29 January briefing to the Council, Khan said that the failure to execute arrest warrants for those indicted by the court had contributed to “the climate of impunity and the outbreak of violence that commenced in April [2023] and that continues today”. He added that there is reason to believe that “Rome Statute crimes” are being perpetrated in Darfur by both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a Sudanese paramilitary group, in the current fighting, although he did not specify which type or types of crimes he was referencing under the statute. (Under the Rome Statute, the ICC has jurisdiction over four crimes: genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression.)  

Since the onset of the current conflict in April 2023, more than 18,650 people have been killed, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, a non-governmental organisation that collects conflict-related data, as at 12 July. (For background and more information, see the Sudan brief in our June Monthly Forecast and 17 June What’s in Blue story.) 

According to the ICC Prosecutor’s most recent report—submitted to the Council on 29 January, pursuant to resolution 1593—the Office of the Prosecutor (OTP) has accelerated investigations with respect to crimes committed in Darfur as part of the current hostilities. To this end, the OTP deployed investigative missions to the region and carried out extensive open-source investigations and analyses. The report indicated that outreach missions had also been conducted to refugee camps in eastern Chad and noted that investigations into the current hostilities include crimes committed in El-Geneina, with other areas of Darfur also of significant interest because of alleged crimes in these states. 

With respect to the investigations of other individuals subject to arrest warrants in the Darfur situation, the prosecutor’s report said that these suspects were detained in Kober prison in Khartoum before the outbreak of conflict in Sudan in April 2023. Several reports, however, indicated that “prisoners were either released from, escaped, or otherwise left Kober prison”. The report also took note of accounts suggesting that Al Bashir and Hussein remained in the custody of the SAF at the Al-Alia military hospital in Omdurman. It noted that Harun remained at large in eastern Sudan and that Sudanese authorities were able to communicate with him. During the period covered by the report, the OTP was able to strengthen the case against Harun by collecting additional relevant information.  

In her remarks during the annual open debate on the protection of civilians in armed conflict, held on 21 May, Special Adviser of the Secretary-General on the Prevention of Genocide Alice Wairimu Nderitu raised alarm about the spiralling situation in Sudan which she said “bears all the marks of risk of genocide, with strong allegations that this crime has already been committed”.  

The final report of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, dated 15 January, underscored that in West Darfur (particularly in El Geneina, Sirba, Murne, and Masteri), the RSF and allied militias specifically targeted the Masalit community and systematically violated international humanitarian law. The report indicated that some of these violations might constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity.  

Human Rights-Related Developments  

In a 26 June press release, a group of UN experts warned that “the extent of hunger and displacement…in Sudan today is unprecedented and never witnessed before”. It also expressed concerns about “the deliberate targeting of humanitarian workers and local volunteers”, which it said has undermined aid operations, putting millions of people at further risk of starvation.  

On 12 July, the UN Human Rights expert on the situation of human rights in Sudan, Radhouane Nouicer, issued a statement after his five-day visit to Port Sudan. He called on authorities immediately to address four key priority areas: ensuring the protection of civilians by refraining from indiscriminate attacks; permitting unhindered humanitarian access, including by expediting administrative processes; refraining from arbitrary arrests and detentions; and ensuring accountability for human rights violations and abuses. 

The International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan, established by the Human Rights Council in October 2023, visited Chad from 30 June to 18 July and travelled to several areas in eastern Chad along the border with Sudan, including Adre, Farchana, and Abeche. In its press release following the visit, the mission noted that it had documented disturbing patterns of grave human rights violations and called on the international community urgently to step up efforts to end the conflict.  

Women, Peace and Security 

As the Council’s president for June, the Republic of Korea (ROK) elected to include a focus on women, peace and security (WPS) at the 18 June Council briefing on Sudan. Several participants addressed WPS issues during the meeting. In her briefing, Director of OCHA’s Operations and Advocacy Division Edem Wosornu said that the UN Population Fund received reports of women and girls being raped and subjected to other forms of gender-based violence (GBV) as they leave their homes in search of food, with local women-led organisations reporting rising suicide rates among survivors and shrinking access to services. Limiaa Ahmed, Senior Programme Director of the non-governmental organisation Sudan Family Planning Association, stressed that although women’s rights and women-led organisations “have spared no effort” to assist women and girls affected by GBV, they are “severely underfunded and do not have the capacity to cope with the scale of violence against women and girls”. Malta, Slovenia, and Switzerland condemned sexual violence against women and girls, and the ROK urged the warring parties to “maintain strict command-and-control systems over their forces”. Ecuador noted that the “political path to peace must ensure the full, equal, meaningful and safe participation of Sudanese women”. Similarly, Japan said that women’s meaningful participation in political decision-making is “a precondition to creating lasting peace and security”. 

Key Issues and Options 

An underlying key issue for the Council is how to promote justice and accountability for past atrocities committed in Darfur and for the ongoing violations of international humanitarian law and human rights law by the Sudanese warring parties across the country.   

Another key issue for the Council is how to enhance cooperation between the ICC prosecutor and relevant Sudanese authorities.  

In the upcoming Council meeting on Sudan, several Council members, including the P3 (France, the UK, and the US) and like-minded members, may welcome the efforts of the OTP in leading investigations regarding ongoing hostilities and the work done by the Fact-Finding Mission on Sudan. These members may encourage the ICC’s cooperation with third states, as well as with regional and civil society organisations. They may call upon the Sudanese warring parties to uphold international humanitarian law and cooperate with investigative agencies in carrying out their work.   

In addition to receiving Khan’s briefing, Council members supportive of the ICC’s work in Sudan could consider requesting a briefing from the UN Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide to spotlight the crimes being committed in the conflict.   

Council Dynamics   

The Council is divided on the work of the ICC. Ecuador, France, Guyana, Japan, Malta, the ROK, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Switzerland, and the UK are state parties to the Rome Statute of the ICC. Algeria, China, Mozambique, Russia, and the US are not. These distinctions, however, do not necessarily reflect how members view the court’s work on Sudan. For instance, the US has supported the ICC’s efforts regarding Sudan.  

In December 2023, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that he had determined that members of the SAF and the RSF had committed war crimes in Sudan. He further determined that members of the RSF and allied militias had committed crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing. This determination, Blinken said, “provides force and renewed urgency to African and international efforts to end the violence, address the humanitarian and human rights crisis, and work towards meaningful justice for victims and the affected communities that ends decades of impunity”.   

At the last semi-annual briefing on 29 January, wide-ranging views were expressed about the ICC’s work in relation to Darfur. Most members welcomed the progress on Abd-Al-Rahman’s trial while calling on Sudan to increase its cooperation with the court, including by providing access to key witnesses. These members also welcomed and supported the efforts by the OTP to conduct investigations into crimes committed as part of the ongoing hostilities in Sudan. At the same time, Russia declared that “[t]he regrettable, if not outright tragic, effects of the Council’s involvement of the ICC in the situations in Libya and Darfur teach us one thing only: the Council made a mistake by transferring these situations to the ICC, a mistake that must not be repeated. It is important to assess the damage that this entity has caused to specific countries”. 

Russia’s negative view of the ICC hardened following the court’s announcement on 17 March 2023 that it had issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his commissioner for children’s rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, for allegedly committing the war crime of “unlawful deportation” and “unlawful transfer” of children from Ukraine to Russia.   

The UK is the penholder on Sudan, and the US is the penholder on Sudan sanctions.  

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UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN 
 
Security Council Resolutions
31 March 2005S/RES/1593 This resolution referred the situation in Darfur to the International Criminal Court.
Security Council Meeting Records
18 June 2024S/PV.9659 This was a meeting on Sudan, pursuant to resolution 2715 of 1 December 2023, which terminated the mandate of the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan.
29 January 2024S/PV.9538 The Security Council meeting records was the ICC Prosecutor’s semi-annual briefing on the court’s work in Darfur.

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