September 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 August 2024
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AFRICA

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Expected Council Action

In September, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The anticipated briefer is Bintou Keita, the Special Representative and Head of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO).

MONUSCO’s mandate expires on 20 December.

Key Recent Developments

During her recent briefing to the Council in July, Keita described the deteriorating security situation in the eastern DRC, expressing extreme concern about the rapid expansion in North Kivu province of the Mouvement du 23 mars (M23), which has captured several strategic locations. The violence in North Kivu has exacerbated the humanitarian situation there, with more than 2.5 million people internally displaced in the province, according to OCHA. Keita also noted the expansion of the conflict to South Kivu province, increasing communal tensions.

On 4 July, the US announced that a humanitarian truce had been agreed by the parties to the conflict in eastern DRC. The truce, which took effect at midnight on 5 July and continued for two weeks, until 19 July, appears to be a follow-up to the November 2023 visit by US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines to the DRC and Rwanda and her ensuing interaction with their presidents, Felix Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame. The truce was extended for another two weeks until 3 August with the hope that the parties would eventually agree to a durable cessation of hostilities.

While the truce was largely respected, there were allegations of violations, with the situation in North Kivu remaining volatile. According to OCHA, at least seven people were killed and eight injured in Bweremana (in the Masisi territory in North Kivu) when two bombs exploded on 15 and 16 July.

On 30 July, the DRC and Rwanda signed a ceasefire agreement in Luanda under Angola’s auspices, which took effect on 4 August. Based on the agreement, the ceasefire will be monitored by the Ad-Hoc Verification Mechanism established as part of the Luanda process—a regional initiative under the leadership of Angola’s President João Lourenço to ease tensions between the DRC and Rwanda. The two countries’ foreign ministers met again in Luanda on August 20 and 21 to continue discussing the peace agreement proposed by Angola to find a lasting and durable solution to the long-standing conflict in eastern DRC.

The Security Council welcomed the signing of the ceasefire agreement in resolution 2746 of 6 August. The resolution authorised MONUSCO to provide operational and logistical support to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC), operating in the eastern DRC since December 2023. On 17 August, SADC held its ordinary summit in Harare, Zimbabwe, and commended Angola for its role as a mediator. However, the communiqué released after the summit did not mention the adoption of resolution 2746.

In June, MONUSCO concluded the withdrawal of its forces from South Kivu in accordance with the disengagement plan agreed with the Congolese government and endorsed by the Security Council in resolution 2717 of 19 December 2023. The process faced some challenges, however, including a lack of adequate resources, including logistics and manpower, and the deteriorating security situation. In resolution 2746, the Council “urged MONUSCO to consolidate the handover of responsibilities to the DRC Government in South Kivu and to continue to jointly plan the next steps of the gradual, responsible and sustainable withdrawal of the mission before further moving forward”.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 4 July, UN Human Rights eocratic Republic of Congo.

The experts noted that between August 2023 and June 2024, at least 531 victims of conflict-related sexual violence were reported in the provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Tanganyika, and Maniema. They highlighted several challenges that prevent victims from reporting to authorities and UN entities, including fear of reprisals by armed groups, social stigma, inadequate tracking of abducted victims who may be trafficked, difficulties in identification, delayed referral to protection services, and widespread impunity.

The experts expressed concern that “with the MONUSCO withdrawal, key components of early warning systems for human rights violations will no longer be operational, significantly limiting human rights monitoring, reporting, and investigation”. They called on the DRC government to guarantee unhindered access for human rights actors across the entire territory to ensure the documentation and prevention of human rights violations, including those related to conflict-related sexual violence and human trafficking.xperts expressed alarm at reports of widespread human trafficking, particularly sexual slavery and exploitation, as well as the increasing number of child and forced marriages resulting from conflict and displacement in the eastern Dem

Women, Peace and Security

A survey conducted in April by Epicentre—a non-profit organisation that conducts field epidemiology activities and research projects for Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)—recorded alarming levels of violence, particularly sexual violence, in and around four displaced persons’ camps near Goma, in eastern DRC, which together house over 200,000 people. More than ten percent of women respondents aged 20 to 44 reported having been raped in the five months before the survey, with rates exceeding 17 percent of women in this age group in some camps. The survey also showed a high incidence of sexual violence among teenage girls and women over 45.

In a 5 August press release about the survey, Camille Niel, MSF’s emergency coordinator in Goma, said that these findings align with the high number of sexual violence cases treated by MSF’s medical teams in displaced persons’ sites around Goma. Niel added that victims and survivors of sexual violence have reported being attacked “by men, often armed, in the forests and fields where they have to go to collect firewood or the food they need to feed their families” as well as during violent incidents inside the camps. The persistence of the violence is leaving patients treated by MSF at high risk of being attacked again once they leave their clinics. In the press release, MSF urged authorities to guarantee the security of displaced persons’ sites and called on aid agencies to increase food assistance and income-generating activities in the sites and to “support accommodation and shelter for victims and survivors of sexual violence in serious danger of being attacked again”.

Key Issues and Options

A key issue for Council members remains the security situation in the eastern DRC and how to find a lasting solution to the conflict through diplomatic means. In September, Council members will be keen to learn about the ceasefire agreement’s implementation. Council members could invite Angola to brief the Council on its ongoing mediation efforts and the implementation of the ceasefire agreement.

Also a key issue is MONUSCO’s disengagement process. Council members expect to receive updates from the mission and the Congolese government on efforts being exerted to consolidate the handover of security responsibilities in South Kivu. At the July meeting, France, the co-penholder on the DRC, noted that the conditions that made the mission’s withdrawal from South Kivu possible are not yet in place in North Kivu and Ituri, the two other provinces where MONUSCO operates. In this regard, France welcomed “the Congolese Government’s determination to consolidate the transfer of responsibility in South Kivu before moving on to the next stages”.

The logistical and operational support provided by MONUSCO to SAMIDRC will be another issue. The Council has requested the Secretary-General to report by 15 November on the support provided to the force in line with resolution 2746 and the challenges encountered.

Council Dynamics

Council members remain seriously concerned about the security and humanitarian situation in the eastern DRC. They all seem to agree that the solution to this long-standing issue is political, and they continue to support regional efforts. Some Council members continue to call for external actors to stop supporting armed groups in eastern DRC. In particular, the US, France, Switzerland, and Slovenia remain vocal on the issue and continue to mention Rwanda’s role in the region.

Council members continue to stress that the MONUSCO disengagement process must be implemented in a gradual, conditions-based, and responsible manner. At the July meeting, several Council members stressed the need to avoid leaving a security vacuum and called on the Congolese government to assume its security responsibilities to protect civilians.

Regarding MONUSCO’s support to SAMIDRC, the A3+1 members (the African members, currently Algeria, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Guyana) emphasised the importance of resolution 2746 in facilitating cooperation between MONUSCO and SAMIDRC and in strengthening capacity, enhancing security, and reducing protection risks for civilians. While supporting the resolution, the US raised concerns about providing air assets and armoured vehicles to SAMIDRC, fearing it could escalate regional tensions. The UK also echoed these concerns.

France and Sierra Leone are the co-penholders on the DRC. Ambassador Michael Imran Kanu (Sierra Leone) chairs the 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

Security Council Resolutions
6 August 2024S/RES/2746 This resolution authorised MONUSCO to provide logistical and operational support to SAMIDRC and requested the Secretary-General to report on the implementation of this resolution and SAMIDRC to report on its activities, including coordination with MONUSCO, by 15 November.
19 December 2023S/RES/2717 This resolution extends the mandate of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO)
Security Council Meeting Record
8 July 2024S/PV.9681 This was a meeting on the situation in the DRC.
Security Council Press Statement
20 June 2024SC/15739 This was a statement on the situation in the DRC.

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