September 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 August 2024
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AMERICAS

Haiti

Expected Council Action   

In September, the Security Council may renew the authorisation of the Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission in Haiti, which resolution 2699 of 2 October 2023 authorised for an initial period of 12 months to help Haitian authorities re-establish security in the country and build conditions conducive to holding free and fair elections.

Background and Key Recent Developments   

After the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, Haiti descended into a multidimensional crisis characterised by political deadlock, extreme violence, and dire humanitarian conditions. Criminal gangs have overrun an estimated 80 percent of Port-au-Prince, the capital, employing brutal tactics such as kidnapping, sexual violence, and murder to subdue and subjugate the civilian population. The country also continues to suffer from a governance crisis as elections have not taken place since 2016.

In October 2022, the Haitian government appealed for the immediate deployment of an “international specialised force” to temporarily reinforce the efforts of the Haitian National Police (HNP) to combat gangs. Secretary-General António Guterres endorsed the request, recommending that “[o]ne or several Member States, acting bilaterally at the invitation of and in cooperation with the Government of Haiti, could deploy, as a matter of urgency, a rapid action force” to support the HNP. In July 2023, ten months after Haiti’s initial request, Kenya agreed to lead a multinational force to the country, pledging to deploy 1,000 police officers. After Kenya’s announcement, several countries—including the Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belize, Benin, Chad, and Jamaica—declared their intention to participate in the force.

Although the UN would not administer the proposed mission, Kenya, Haiti, and other stakeholders sought Security Council authorisation for the deployment. The Council on 2 October 2023 adopted resolution 2699, authorising member states to form and deploy the MSS mission to Haiti. The resolution mandated the mission to provide operational support to the HNP to counter gangs—including by building its capacity through the planning and conduct of joint security support operations—and to support the HNP in the protection of critical infrastructure sites.

The resolution authorised the mission for an initial period of 12 months, to be reviewed after nine months, and required participating countries to notify the Secretary-General of their intention to contribute personnel. Additionally, it specified that the cost of the operation would be borne by voluntary contributions and support from individual countries and regional organisations. Subsequent assessments indicated that the mission would total up to 2,500 officers, deployed in phases, at an annual cost of approximately $600 million.

The mission was initially scheduled to deploy in February, but that timeline was postponed repeatedly for several reasons, including a lack of funding, a judicial challenge in Kenya, and a surge in gang violence in Haiti. The violent surge led to an agreement brokered by the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) to replace interim Prime Minister Ariel Henry with a Transitional Presidential Council (TPC) that is responsible for organising elections by February 2026. (For more information on the country’s political situation, see the brief on Haiti in our July Monthly Forecast). In June and July, Kenya deployed the mission’s first two contingents, totalling 400 officers. At the time of writing, a third contingent from Jamaica was expected to deploy soon.

According to media reports, the MSS mission has helped the HNP achieve some success in retaking neighbourhoods in Port-au-Prince that were previously under gang control. It remains under-resourced, however, reportedly lacking critical capabilities such as air assets and turreted armoured vehicles, while continuing to face personnel and equipment shortfalls that limit its ability to take and hold territory beyond the capital. The mission has also faced some criticism for a lack of transparency as it has withheld details about its concept of operations, citing security concerns.

In line with resolution 2699, which requested the Secretary-General to provide recommendations on possibly adapting the MSS mission’s mandate within nine months, the Secretary-General’s most recent report on the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH), dated 27 June, said that the mission’s mandate “remains valid and will remain necessary beyond October 2024”. It added that “[t]he mandated tasks of re-establishing security in Haiti and creating security conditions conducive to the holding of free and fair elections will require continuous deployment, at least until the restoration of democratically elected authorities”.

The report cautioned that the contributions and pledges that the mission has received to date—which include more than $300 million in promised logistical and financial support from the US, in addition to $21 million deposited into the mission’s UN-administered trust fund—remain insufficient for the mission to fulfil its budgetary and operational needs and ensure its presence for the duration of Haiti’s political transition. According to the report, the mission will be unable to complete a 12-month deployment without “substantial additional funding”.

Regarding the establishment of a compliance mechanism to prevent human rights violations by MSS forces, as requested by resolution 2699, the Secretary-General’s report said that “parts” of the UN system have advised the mission on best practices for complying with “international human rights and with international standards of conduct and discipline”. This technical assistance has included steps for integrating human rights concerns across mission activities and creating mechanisms to address “disciplinary and accountability issues”. The report further noted that the UN, upon request, could provide the mission with additional substantive support in relation to the “consistent and continuous implementation” of compliance mechanisms to minimise the risks of human rights violations in the planning and conduct of operations.

While Haiti’s gang violence appears to have receded from its peak earlier this year, the country’s security and humanitarian situations remain dire. Between 1 April and 30 June, BINUH recorded 1,379 people who were victims of murder or injury, a 45 percent decrease compared to the previous reporting period, but still an alarmingly high figure. Additionally, the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) designated the country a “famine hotspot of highest concern” in their latest outlook report covering the period from June to October of this year.

On 12 July, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2743, renewing BINUH’s mandate for another year, until 15 July 2025. The resolution included new language emphasising the need for coordination between BINUH, the MSS, and other stakeholders to “ensure complementarity and avoid duplication of efforts” in the provision of international support for the HNP. Emphasising the mission’s need for additional resources, the resolution also encouraged member states and regional organisations to support the MSS through voluntary contributions in the form of financial, personnel, and in-kind commitments.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 20 June, several UN human rights experts voiced deep concern over the escalating gang violence and political instability in Haiti, resulting in a record 578,074 internal displacements in 2024 and making Haiti the country with the highest internal displacement globally due to crime-related violence. Among the displaced are over 310,000 women and girls and 180,000 children. The experts warned that a growing number of unaccompanied children are at risk of exploitation, abuse, and trafficking by gangs, while sexual violence against women and girls in internally displaced persons (IDP) sites is also surging.

The experts called for the MSS mission in Haiti to support the HNP and ensure security in line with international human rights standards. They also emphasised the need to increase funding for Haiti’s 2024 Humanitarian Response Plan, to facilitate humanitarian access, and to strengthen protection mechanisms for IDPs.

Key Issues and Options   

The central task for the Security Council in September is to renew the MSS mission’s authorisation. The Council is expected to retain the mission’s core mandate, which is to support the HNP’s efforts to build security conditions conducive to holding elections by providing operational support and securing critical infrastructure.

Regarding the mission’s resource shortfall, the Council is likely to maintain the mission’s voluntary funding model, but it may reiterate its call for additional contributions from the international community. In this regard, Council members could encourage countries and regional organisations to consider specific initiatives to enhance their support, such as a pledging conference.

Additionally, Council members could request the mission to expedite efforts to establish a functioning compliance mechanism to prevent human rights violations. Members may also request the UN to enhance its substantive and technical support to the mission in this regard and report on progress achieved towards making such a mechanism operational.

Council Dynamics   

Council members are united in their concern about Haiti’s multidimensional crisis and broadly agree on the need for a Haitian-led political solution that addresses both security and socioeconomic challenges. The unanimous adoptions of resolutions 2699 and 2743 are indicative of members’ general support of the UN and broader international engagement on Haiti.

Some Council members have expressed scepticism about the MSS mission, however. Russia has criticised a provision of the CARICOM-brokered agreement on Haiti’s transitional governance structure that required members of the TPC to support the MSS mission, which Moscow has described as interference in Haiti’s domestic affairs. Additionally, both China and Russia have questioned the lack of operational detail from the mission and whether conditions are conducive to its success in light of Haiti’s persistent political instability. During the negotiations on resolution 2743, the two members apparently sought to limit references to the MSS mission, arguing that BINUH’s mandate should not pre-empt separate Council discussion on the renewal of the MSS mission’s authorisation.

Ecuador and the US are the co-penholders on Haiti.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON HAITI

Security Council Resolutions
12 July 2024S/RES/2743 This resolution renewed BINUH’s mandate for one year, until 15 July 2025.
2 October 2023S/RES/2699 This resolution authorised member states to form and deploy a Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission to Haiti to help re-establish security in the country and build conditions conducive to holding free and fair elections.
Secretary-General’s Reports
27 June 2024S/2024/508 This was the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on Haiti.

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