September 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 August 2024
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AFRICA

Libya

Expected Council Action 

In September, the Security Council is expected to renew the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations, to inspect and seize vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya that they have reasonable grounds to suspect are being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking from Libya.

The current authorisation expires on 29 September.

Key Recent Developments 

On 30 August, Council members received an advance copy of the Secretary-General’s most recent annual report on migrant smuggling and human trafficking in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Libya. The previous report, dated 30 August 2023 and covering developments from 30 August 2022 to 10 August 2023, noted a significant increase in migrant and refugee crossings: approximately 169,219 persons arrived in Europe along the three main sea routes across the Mediterranean between September 2022 and July 2023, representing a 51 percent increase compared with the previous reporting period. The central Mediterranean route accounted for the vast majority of these arrivals, with approximately 133,514 refugees and migrants arriving at Italy and Malta by sea, of which most had departed from either Libya (45 percent) or Tunisia (43 percent). An estimated 3,111 persons died or went missing in the Mediterranean Sea between August 2022 and June 2023, representing a 78 percent increase compared with the same period in the previous year.

According to the Secretary-General’s 30 August 2023 report, the EU estimated that approximately 70,216 people were rescued or intercepted in 1,292 operations conducted during the reporting period by vessels in the area of operations covered by the EU Naval Force military operation in the Mediterranean (EUNAVFOR MED IRINI). With Operation IRINI, the EU is the only regional organisation implementing the authorisation given by the Council to inspect vessels suspected of migrant smuggling and human trafficking off the coast of Libya. In the report, the Secretary-General reiterated his recommendation to EU member states to conclude a “credible and predictable agreement for disembarkation”, which would determine the re-location of migrants rescued in EU territorial waters. On 14 May, after several years of negotiations, the EU formally adopted the Pact on Migration and Asylum, which includes a “solidarity” mechanism to balance the receipt, processing, and cost of asylum applications among member states.

The Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), dated 8 August and covering events since 9 April, details more recent developments relevant to the upcoming reauthorisation. During the reporting period, 6,105 migrants and refugees were intercepted attempting to cross the Mediterranean Sea from Libya. As of May, there were 725,304 migrants and refugees in the country, approximately 4,300 of whom were arbitrarily detained in official detention centres. Armed groups operate six unofficial detention centres, to which the UN does not have access and where an additional 3,000 people are estimated to be arbitrarily detained.

According to the Secretary-General’s UNSMIL report, human rights violations against migrants and refugees in Libya have persisted, particularly in detention. UNSMIL has received reports of arbitrary arrests of migrants and asylum seekers and their detention in “abhorrent conditions”, in which they face “persistent patterns of abuse, exploitation, forced labour, extortion, torture, and other forms of ill-treatment by guards”. The report urged Libyan authorities to meet their international and national human rights obligations and adopt a comprehensive legal and policy framework on migration that prioritises “the human rights, dignity and well-being” of migrants and refugees, including by decriminalising irregular entry into the country, considering non-custodial measures as alternatives to detention, and implementing measures to prevent arbitrary detention, forced labour, slavery, and human trafficking.

On 17 July, 16 countries participated in the Trans-Mediterranean Migration Forum in Tripoli. The forum was organised by the country’s UN-recognised Government of National Unity (GNU) with the aim of strengthening international cooperation on and devising solutions to the issue of irregular migration. In a statement, UNSMIL welcomed the forum as an important opportunity to advance a “human rights-based approach to migration governance”. The statement stressed the importance of a concerted international effort to address current challenges and re-emphasised the need for Libyan authorities to adopt a new legal and policy framework on migrants and refugees in line with the country’s international legal obligations.

Regarding the broader political situation in Libya, the country remains divided between the GNU, based in Tripoli and led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeibah with advisory support from the High State Council (HSC), and the eastern-based Government of National Stability (GNS), led by Prime Minister Osama Hamad and backed by the House of Representatives (HoR) and the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) under the command of General Khalifa Haftar. According to the Secretary-General’s most recent UNSMIL report, the parties have not achieved any progress in resolving disagreements about proposed electoral legislation that would allow national elections to be held and reconcile the country’s divided government. The main point of contention concerns the formation of a unified interim government to organise the elections, a move favoured by the GNS and HoR but opposed by the GNU and some segments of the HSC. (For more information on Libya’s political situation, see our 19 August What’s in Blue story.)

On 20 August, the Council held its regular bimonthly briefing and consultations on Libya. Deputy Special Representative and Political Officer in Charge of UNSMIL Stephanie Koury updated Council members on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country. The chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Kazuyuki Yamazaki (Japan), briefed on the committee’s activities. On 28 August, Council members issued a press statement on Libya, in which they called on the parties to refrain from unilateral actions that can increase tensions and to make compromises necessary to advance the Libyan-led and Libyan-owned political process. The statement also stressed “the importance of ensuring the full, equal, effective, meaningful and safe participation of women, and inclusion of youth and civil society representatives, in all activities and decision-making relating to democratic transition”.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 9 July, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk addressed the Human Rights Council, highlighting the ongoing suffering of the Libyan people due to economic hardship and political exclusion. He expressed concern that the targeting of civil society organisations, political activists, journalists, and others is fostering a climate of fear, undermining the very foundations necessary for Libya’s democratic transition, emboldening spoilers, and allowing security actors to commit human rights violations with impunity. Türk said that the building blocks for securing a lasting peace in Libya include a rights-based, people-centred transitional justice and reconciliation process; a sustainable political settlement that reflects the rights and aspirations of all Libyans; the restoration of the rule of law, including accountability for human rights violations; and the emergence of unified, legitimate institutions.

Key Issues and Options 

The key issue for the Council in September is the renewal of the authorisation to combat migrant smuggling and human trafficking off the coast of Libya, which was most recently extended by resolution 2698 of 29 September 2023. Prior to this year’s reauthorisation, the Council may invite a briefer from the EU to update members on Operation IRINI’s recent activities. In the past, such briefings have taken place in an informal setting during Council negotiations or in an informal interactive dialogue (IID), a closed format that, unlike consultations, allows for the participation of non-UN Secretariat officials and briefers.

Council Dynamics 

The Council initially established the anti-migrant smuggling and human trafficking authorisation through resolution 2240 of 9 October 2015 and has renewed it annually. Until 2023, the renewals were straightforward extensions adopted unanimously, except in 2016, when then-member Venezuela abstained.

During negotiations on last year’s renewal, Russia proposed new language reflecting the Secretary-General’s reporting on the increasing number of migrants and refugees crossing the Mediterranean Sea and the human rights violations to which they were subjected. Russia also suggested that the resolution refer to the Secretary-General’s recommendation that EU member states conclude an agreement on disembarkation. Elements of the former proposal were included in the final text, but the latter was not. Russia consequently abstained on resolution 2698.

Concerning the situation in Libya more generally, Council members remain united on the need for a Libyan-led, inclusive political process resulting in elections that will help to restore political, security, and economic stability to the country.  Broader geopolitical tensions still influence Council dynamics with respect to the country, however. The US and other Western members remain concerned about Russia’s growing presence in the eastern part of the country that is under Haftar’s control, while Russia routinely blames Libya’s current instability on the NATO-led military intervention in 2011 and accuses Western countries of seeking to exploit Libya’s oil reserves for economic gain.

France and Malta are co-penholders for the authorisation on Libya under consideration in September.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA

Security Council Resolutions
29 September 2023S/RES/2698 This resolution renewed for one year the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations, to inspect and seize vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya that they have reasonable grounds to suspect are being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking from Libya.
Secretary-General’s Reports
8 August 2024S/2024/598 This was the 120-day report on UNSMIL.
30 August 2023S/2023/640 This was the Secretary-General’s annual report on migrant smuggling and human trafficking off the coast of Libya, covering developments from 30 August 2022 to 10 August 2023.

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