September 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 August 2024
Download Complete Forecast: PDF

Status Update since our August Forecast 

Women, Peace and Security 

On 7 August, the Security Council held a briefing on “Sustaining women, peace and security commitments in the context of accelerated drawdown of peace operations” (S/PV.9700). The briefing was chaired by Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Sierra Leone Francess Piagie Alghali. The briefers were Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations (DPPA-DPO) Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee, UN Women Executive Director Sima Sami Bahous, and Founding Director of Confluence Advisory Kholood Khair. This meeting represented the Security Council’s first thematic briefing on UN peace operations transitions and women, peace and security.  

Counter-Terrorism  

On 8 August, the Security Council convened an open briefing (S/PV.9701) on the Secretary-General’s 19th biannual strategic-level report on the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) to international peace and security (S/2024/583). Under-Secretary-General for Counter-Terrorism and Head of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) Vladimir Voronkov and Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) Natalia Gherman briefed. 

Security Council Reform 

On 12 August, the Security Council convened a high-level debate titled “Addressing the historical injustice and enhancing Africa’s effective representation on the UN Security Council” under the “Maintenance of international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9702). This was one of the signature events of Sierra Leone’s August Council presidency. Sierra Leonean President Julius Maada Bio chaired the meeting. The briefers were UN Secretary-General António Guterres, President of the UN General Assembly Dennis Francis, and Dr. Sithembile Mbete, Senior Lecturer of Political Sciences at the Faculty of Humanities, University of Pretoria. 

Somalia  

On 12 August, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2747, extending the authorisation for AU member states to deploy uniformed personnel in the country to carry out the mandated tasks of the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) by three days, until 15 August. In suggesting a short technical rollover, the UK (the penholder on Somalia) apparently sought to allow time for further deliberations on a substantive resolution deciding the next steps regarding post-ATMIS security arrangements. 

On 15 August, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2748, extending the authorisation for the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) until 31 December. The resolution requested the Secretary-General, jointly with the AU Commission Chairperson and in consultation with Somalia and international stakeholders, to report on the overall mission design for a successor mission by 15 November.  

Ukraine  

On 13 August, Russia convened an Arria-formula meeting titled “Crimes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the nationalist battalions”. Briefings were delivered by Rodion Miroshnik, Russian Ambassador-at-Large on the Crimes of the Kyiv Regime; Maxim Grigoriev, a member of the Russian Civic Chamber and Chairman of the International Public Tribunal on Ukraine, which was established by the Russian Civic Chamber in March 2022; and Oleg Soldat, Assistant Professor at the University of Banja Luka in Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

On 28 August, the Security Council held a briefing on the situation in Ukraine under the “Maintenance of international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9714). Slovenia and the US, the co-penholders on political issues in Ukraine, requested the meeting to discuss the political and security situation in the country. Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča briefed. Ukraine and the EU participated in the meeting under rules 37 and 39 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure, respectively. 

On 30 August, at Russia’s request, the Council held a briefing under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item to discuss “the risks of spiralling escalation resulting from the increasing weapons transfers by the Western countries to the Kyiv regime” (S/PV.9716). Deputy to the High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Adedeji Ebo briefed the Council. 

Middle East, including the Palestinian Question  

On 13 August, the Security Council held a briefing on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9704). Algeria, supported by Slovenia, requested the meeting to discuss the ongoing hostilities in Gaza and the 10 August Israeli strikes on a school sheltering displaced people. The briefers were Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo and OCHA’s Director of the Financing and Partnerships Division Lisa Doughten. 

On 22 August, the Security Council held an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9711). The briefers were Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland and Louisa Baxter, Operations Lead at Save the Children’s Emergency Health Unit in Gaza. 

On 29 August, the Security Council held an open briefing on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9715). Switzerland and the UK called for the meeting in light of the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza and following a 27 August statement by UN Under-Secretary-General for Safety and Security Gilles Michaud on the dire security situation for humanitarians and UN personnel in Gaza. The briefers were Acting Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Joyce Msuya and Michael Ryan, World Health Organization (WHO) Deputy Director-General and Executive Director of the Health and Emergency Programme. 

Georgia 

On 14 August, Security Council members discussed the situation in Georgia under “any other business”. Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča briefed. The meeting, which marked the 16th anniversary of the 2008 conflict between Russia and Georgia, was requested by France, Japan, Malta, Slovenia, the UK, and the US. Following the meeting, those members, together with incoming members Denmark and Greece, delivered a joint statement at a press stakeout reaffirming their support for Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. 

South Sudan  

On 14 August, the Security Council convened an open briefing (S/PV.9705), followed by closed consultations, on the situation in South Sudan and the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), which was published on 29 July and covered developments from 16 February to 15 July (S/2024/572). The briefers were Special Representative of the Secretary-General for South Sudan and Head of UNMISS Nicholas Haysom, Interim Chairperson of the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC) Major General (Retired) Charles Tai Gituai, and Director of OCHA’s Operations and Advocacy Division Edem Wosornu.  

Humanitarian Personnel  

On 19 August, coinciding with World Humanitarian Day, Council members held discussions on humanitarian personnel under “any other business” at the request of Slovenia and Switzerland. In the press elements issued after the meeting, Council members highlighted the ongoing challenges and risks faced by humanitarian personnel, lamenting that 2023 had been the deadliest year on record for aid workers, and reiterated the obligations of states and conflict parties to comply fully with international humanitarian law, including the need to respect and protect humanitarian workers. 

Nord Stream Explosion 

On 20 August, Council members held a meeting under “any other business” to discuss developments pertaining to the domestic investigations conducted by Denmark, Sweden, and Germany into the 26 September 2022 explosions that caused physical damage to the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea. The meeting, requested by Russia, did not include any briefers. 

Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace  

On 21 August, the Security Council held an open debate on “A New Agenda for Peace–Addressing Global, Regional and National Aspects of Conflict Prevention” under the “Peacebuilding and sustaining peace” agenda item (S/PV. 9710). Sierra Leone’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Timothy Musa Kabba, chaired the meeting, which was one of the signature events of Sierra Leone’s August Council presidency. Assistant Secretary-General for Peacebuilding Support Elizabeth Spehar, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Bankole Adeoye, Executive Secretary of the Independent Commission for Peace and National Cohesion of Sierra Leone Hawa Sally Samai, and a civil society representative briefed the Council. 

Informal Visit to Geneva  

On 25 and 26 August, members of the Security Council visited Geneva to mark the 75th anniversary of the 1949 Geneva Conventions. The objective of this informal visit was to provide Council members an opportunity to reaffirm the enduring importance of international humanitarian law (IHL) and to take collective political action to uphold the principles enshrined in the Geneva Conventions. The visit also gave Council members the chance to engage with Geneva-based experts who specialise in data collection and analysis and technological innovation on issues relating to conflict prevention. All Security Council members participated in the visit except Russia. 

Lebanon  

On 19 August, members of the Security Council received a briefing in consultations on the work of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) from Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific Mohamed Khaled Khiari. 

On 28 August, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2749, which extended the mandate of UNIFIL for another year, until 31 August 2025. 

DPRK (North Korea) 

On 29 August, the Chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Pascale Baeriswyl (Switzerland), briefed Council members in closed consultations on the 90-day report on the Committee’s work. 

West Africa and the Sahel 

On 29 August, following the consultations on the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Council members held a meeting under “any other business”. Russia requested the meeting to discuss a 19 August letter to the Council from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, in which they alleged that Ukraine is supporting terrorist activity in the Sahel. 

 

Sign up for SCR emails

Subscribe to receive SCR publications