September 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 August 2024
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PEACEMAKING, PEACEKEEPING AND PEACEBUILDING

UN Peacekeeping 

Expected Council Action  

In September, the Security Council will hold an open debate on peacekeeping reform pursuant to resolution 2378 of 20 September 2017. Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix is the anticipated briefer.  

Key Recent Developments   

Resolution 2378 requested the Secretary-General “to provide a comprehensive annual briefing to the Security Council on reform of United Nations peacekeeping every twelve months to be followed by a debate”. Last year, the Council held the annual meeting on 7 September in a briefing format. Lacroix briefed on progress and challenges in the implementation of the Action for Peacekeeping (A4P); the Action for Peacekeeping Plus (A4P+); and the Secretary-General’s initiative to accelerate peacekeeping reform. A4P is an initiative designed to enhance the impact of UN peacekeeping operations, while A4P+ is the strategy for implementing this initiative. It has been six years since the Secretary-General launched his A4P initiative, and nearly four years since the launch of A4P+. The fourth progress report on the implementation of A4P+, released in January, highlighted progress in its seven key priority areas—collective coherence behind a political strategy, strategic and operational integration, capabilities and mindsets, accountability to peacekeepers, accountability of peacekeepers, strategic communication, and cooperation with host countries.  

Since the last annual briefing, several UN peace operations have closed or begun to draw down. The UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) completed its withdrawal from the country by the end of 2023, following the Council’s termination of its mandate on 30 June 2023. The UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS), a UN Special Political Mission (SPM), also withdrew from the country following the Council’s termination of its mandate on 1 December 2023. 

The UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO) is implementing a disengagement plan, which was agreed with the Congolese government and endorsed by the Security Council through resolution 2717 of 19 December 2023. MONUSCO completed its withdrawal from South Kivu province in June as part of the first phase of the mission’s drawdown process. When renewing the mandate of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) in November 2023, the Security Council requested the Secretary-General to conduct an independent strategic review of the mission and provide detailed recommendations regarding its reconfiguration, including a possible transition plan for its drawdown when conditions are met. Council members received the outcome of the MINUSCA strategic review on 13 August, and its recommendations are likely to inform the upcoming mandate renewal negotiations in November. 

This year, Iraq and Somalia have requested the SPMs in their respective countries to leave. Accordingly, the Security Council adopted resolution 2732 on 31 May, renewing the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) for a final 19-month period until 31 December 2025. At the time of writing, Council members were expecting to receive the Secretary-General’s written update on the future of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), which was due by the end of August. 

On 20 July 2023, the Secretary-General launched the policy brief A New Agenda for Peace (NAfP), which recognised the “challenges posed by long-standing and unresolved conflicts, without a peace to keep, by complex domestic, geopolitical and transnational factors” and “the limitations of ambitious mandates without adequate political support”. In this regard, the NAfP called for “a serious and broad-based reflection” on the future of peacekeeping, underscoring the need to move towards “nimble adaptable models with appropriate, forward-looking transition and exit strategies”.  

The NAfP is the main input for the peace and security section of the draft Pact for the Future—the outcome document expected to be adopted at the Summit of the Future in September—which is currently under negotiation by UN member states. The latest version of the draft pact requests the Secretary-General to “undertake a review on the future of all forms of United Nations’ peace operations, taking into account lessons learned from previous and ongoing reform processes, and providing strategic and action-oriented recommendations for the consideration of Member States on how the United Nations’ toolbox can be adapted to meet evolving needs, to allow for more agile, tailored responses to existing, emerging and future challenges”. 

The NAfP recommended that where peace enforcement is needed, the Council should “authorize a multinational force, or enforcement action by regional and subregional organizations”. It added that peace enforcement actions should be complemented by “inclusive political efforts to advance peace and other non-military approaches such as disarmament, demobilization and reintegration, addressing main conflict drivers and related grievances”.   

On 21 December 2023, the Security Council adopted resolution 2719 on the financing of African Union (AU)-led peace support operations (AUPSOs). The UN and the AU have been consulting on the implementation of this landmark resolution through their joint task team. The team is organised along four workstreams: joint planning, decision-making and reporting; mission support; financing and budgeting; and compliance and protection of civilians. The joint task team had in-person meetings in Addis Ababa (May) and New York (July), and elaborated a Joint AU-UN Roadmap on the Operationalisation of resolution 2719 and Planning Modalities, which will be submitted to the UN Secretary-General and the AU Commission Chairperson for adoption during their next UN-AU annual high-level conference scheduled to take place in October in Addis Ababa.  

Meanwhile, discussions have been underway on possible cases to be considered by the Council under resolution 2719. In respect of the successor mission to the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)—which is expected to withdraw by the end of December—the Security Council adopted resolution 2748 on 15 August, requesting the Secretary-General to present the overall mission design and options for financing it, including but not limited to resolution 2719, jointly with the AU Commission Chairperson and in consultation with Somalia and international stakeholders.  

Key Issues and Options  

A key issue for Council members in September will be the future of UN peacekeeping in light of the ongoing negotiations on the draft pact and the upcoming Summit of the Future. The former Special Representative and head of MINUSMA El-Ghassim Wane is leading a team to review various models for the future of UN peacekeeping in the context of the next Peacekeeping Ministerial to be hosted by Germany in May 2025. Slovenia, which holds the Council Presidency in September, could consider inviting him to brief the Council at the open debate.     

Council Dynamics 

Peacekeeping remains one of the most important tools at the Security Council’s disposal in discharging its primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security. Geopolitical dynamics and the changing nature of conflict, however, have posed serious challenges to peacekeeping operations. The growing frustration among host countries and communities because of the perceived ineffectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations has also complicated the operating environment.  

The issue of partnerships in peacekeeping has regained renewed momentum with the adoption of resolution 2719. On 6 August, the Security Council adopted resolution 2746, authorising MONUSCO to provide operational and logistical support to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC), which has been operating in eastern DRC since December 2023. In November, the Council is expected to authorise support for the ATMIS successor mission based on the Secretary-General’s proposal on the mission’s design and financing options. As well, it seems that preliminary discussions have started behind the scenes on a possible mission in Sudan, exploring various options from a lighter-footprint mission with military observers to a full-fledged AUPSO, depending on the outcome of the ongoing Sudanese mediation process.   

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UN DOCUMENTS ON PEACEKEEPING
 

Security Council Resolutions
20 September 2017S/RES/2378 This was a resolution on UN peacekeeping reform.
Security Council Meeting Records
7 September 2023S/PV.9413 This was a briefing on peacekeeping reform.

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