Somalia
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The Secretary-General's report under resolution 1725 is due on 6 January. It will be the first on a major crisis situation by the new Secretary-General and it will be an interesting test of his approach, particularly since the Council in December rejected the advice of his predecessor and his special representative and went ahead with approval for an Intergovernmental Authority on Development military mission in Somalia in resolution 1725.
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The Council seems likely to continue to be divided about the merits of a regional military mission (IGASOM) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) being deployed in Somalia to support the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). At press time it seemed possible that a US draft resolution giving IGASOM a mandate to support the TFG could be circulated soon.
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The Secretary-General's Special Representative for Somalia, François Lonseny Fall, is expected to brief the Security Council in November. The wider regional implications of involvement in Somalia by Ethiopia and Eritrea are likely to play an increasing role. A presidential statement directed at Ethiopia and Eritrea is an option.
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The Council is likely to continue to discuss how best to support the ongoing talks between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC). In that context, continuing discussions are likely on modifications to the arms embargo (including equipment for training Somali security forces and criteria for targeted sanctions).
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The Council may moderate the tilt which it made in early August in support of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). In the absence of an established peace process involving consent from all parties, it seems unlikely at this stage that the Council will support the proposed African Union/Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) mission.
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No Council decisions on Somalia are scheduled this month. However, given the very unstable situation on the ground, Somalia is likely to feature in some way on the Council programme of work.
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In the light of recent developments in Somalia it seems increasingly unclear whether or when the Council might consider the request of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) for exemption from the arms embargo for its proposed peace support mission in Somalia (IGASOM).
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The Somalia Sanctions Committee is due to receive the final report of the Monitoring Group on the arms embargo, but no new action on sanctions is expected. The current mandate of the Monitoring Group expires 12 May. The Council is expected to renew the Group's mandate for another six months.
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In February, the Council will receive the regular report of the Secretary-General on Somalia. The Sanctions Committee will receive the midterm briefing of the Monitoring Group.
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The Council will receive the interim report of the Monitoring Group on the arms embargo currently in force in Somalia. At this stage, however, we do not expect any strengthening of the sanctions regime or immediate action against violators.
