Counter-Terrorism: Briefing on the Secretary-General’s Strategic-Level Report on ISIL/Da’esh
Tomorrow morning (8 August), the Security Council will convene for a briefing on the Secretary-General’s 19th biannual strategic-level report on the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) to international peace and security, which was circulated to Council members on 31 July (S/2024/583). Under-Secretary-General for Counter-Terrorism and Head of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) Vladimir Voronkov and Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) Natalia Gherman are expected to brief.
Sierra Leone, August’s Council president, has prepared a concept note for tomorrow’s meeting. This concept note raises similar issues to the Arria-formula meeting on “Combatting the rise of Terrorism and Violent Extremism in West Africa and the Sahel” that Sierra Leone convened on 19 June. (For more information, see our 18 June What’s in Blue story.)
According to the concept note, the meeting will provide an opportunity to “explore concrete avenues for increased cooperation on non-military solutions to counter the threat of terrorism with central Sahel and West African member states currently most affected by the threat of terrorism, including cooperation on civilian protection initiatives”. The concept note says that member states are expected to discuss how to develop new partnerships that help leverage successful community initiatives in tackling the root causes of terrorism and indicates that member states from the Central Sahel and West Africa that are most affected by terrorism will be given the opportunity to identify areas where support is most needed.
Several guiding questions are outlined in the concept note:
- How can active cooperation between government stakeholders and local communities be further enhanced to better address the key drivers leading to violent extremism and terrorism? What additional tools and support could contribute to achieving far-reaching impact for the local population?
- What practical measures could be taken to hamper the increasing cross-border issues caused by terrorist-related activities resulting in significant movements of populations and creating additional strain on already limited local resources, which could constitute potential drivers of violent extremism?
- How could a new approach to sub-regional and international cooperation with Sahel and West African states materialise to better tackle the scourge of terrorism, especially its root causes, while taking into account local communities’ aspirations?
It seems that at least one Council member raised concerns regarding the concept note circulated by Sierra Leone and suggested that the Council’s regular briefing on the Secretary-General’s biannual report on the threat posed by ISIL should not focus on one region alone. In response to these concerns, Sierra Leone apparently indicated that the concept note was only intended to guide the discussion. In their statements tomorrow, Council members are likely to discuss different aspects of the Secretary-General’s report as well as some of the issues referred to in the concept note.
The Secretary-General’s 31 July report is the first biannual report on the threat posed by ISIL issued since the Council adopted resolution 2734 of 10 June, which most recently extended the mandates of the 1267/1988 Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team and the Office of the Ombudsperson. (For more information on resolution 2734, see our 10 June What’s in Blue story.) In a departure from previous practice, resolution 2734 requested that the threat assessment portion of the Secretary-General’s report be covered by annexing the latest report of the Monitoring Team. As such, the Monitoring Team’s 22 July report is annexed to the Secretary-General’s 31 July report.
Voronkov and Gherman may report that the overall threat posed by ISIL appears to have increased. The Secretary-General’s report says that the Monitoring Team’s threat assessment indicates that both the risk of ISIL resurging in the Middle East and concerns about the ability of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-K)—ISIL’s Afghan affiliate—to project a threat outside Afghanistan “increased or materialised in the reporting period”. ISIL’s activities have also continued to have a disproportionate effect in conflict zones, particularly in Africa.
Given the focus of Sierra Leone’s concept note, several Council members are likely to highlight the counter-terrorism challenges facing member states in West Africa and the Sahel. According to the Secretary-General’s report, ISIL’s “Furqan office” in the Lake Chad Basin has grown in importance and capability, including by establishing cells in northwest Nigeria and facilitating the provision of support among ISIL affiliates in the region under the direction of ISIL’s core leadership. The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) has also taken advantage of a détente with Al-Qaida affiliate Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) to expand its territory, which has led to high casualty levels and increased instability in the region.
Council members are also likely to discuss developments in other regions. The Secretary-General’s report notes that several member states have assessed that ISIL-K funded and trained the perpetrators of terrorist attacks in the city of Kerman in Iran on 3 January and in Moscow on 22 March, each of which killed at least 100 people and injured many more. Accordingly, member states are increasingly concerned about the terrorist threat emanating from Afghanistan, particularly following reports suggesting that ISIL’s core leadership has directed operatives from Afghanistan and its neighbouring countries to carry out attacks abroad.
Given the escalating tensions in the Middle East, some Council members may refer to the Monitoring Team’s finding that ISIL has “increased its operational pace” in Syria while maintaining a lower pace in Iraq, where the group has inflicted “limited material damage and loss of life”. Members might also note that ISIL has benefitted from both regional conflicts and reduced counter-terrorism efforts to expand its operations and embed sleeper cells in neighbouring countries, while some members could highlight that ISIL has exploited the conflict in Israel and Gaza to assist with its recruitment efforts.
The use of new and emerging technologies by ISIL and its affiliates is another possible topic of discussion. The Monitoring Team’s 22 July report indicates that listed terrorist groups are increasingly using anonymity-enhanced cryptocurrencies and have continued to develop near military-grade capabilities, including by exploiting 3D printing and developing uncrewed aerial and maritime weapons and surveillance systems. Council members may also refer to the Monitoring Team’s finding that the use of these technologies could enable evasion of the sanctions imposed by the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL and Al-Qaida sanctions regime.
Council members are also likely to address the prevention of terrorism. The Secretary-General’s report observes that the risk of ISIL growing stronger is certain to remain if security-centred approaches to counter-terrorism are not accompanied by “efforts that are comprehensive, whole-of-government and whole-of-society, human rights-based and gender-responsive”. Several Council members are expected to make similar points in their statements tomorrow.
