Somalia: Vote on the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)*
On Monday afternoon (12 August), the Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution on the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which was authored by the UK, the penholder on Somalia. The draft resolution in blue extends the authorisation for African Union (AU) member states to deploy uniformed personnel in the country to carry out ATMIS’ mandated tasks by three days, until 15 August.
The short draft text in blue is a technical rollover that extends the measures contained in resolution 2741 of 28 June, which last reauthorised ATMIS’ mandate until 12 August. (The term “technical rollover” is commonly used by diplomats to describe a concise resolution extending a peace operation’s mandate without altering its core mandate or tasks. It traditionally denotes an extension for a shorter period than is customary.) It requests the Secretary-General to continue to provide, until 15 August, a logistical support package through the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) and decides to continue support for 20,900 personnel from the Somali National Army or Somali Police Force on joint or coordinated operations with ATMIS.
Background
In resolution 2741, the Council recognised the work done by the AU and Somalia to establish an agreed concept of operations (CONOPs) for an AU-led peace support operation (AUPSO) to follow ATMIS, which is expected to draw down and exit by December. It further encouraged the AU Commission (the AU’s secretariat) to include in the CONOPs a comprehensive exit strategy and benchmarks with clear indicators and milestones to measure progress. (For background and more information, see the Somalia brief in our August 2024 Monthly Forecast and 28 June What’s in Blue story.)
Between 13 and 16 July, a nine-member AU delegation visited Somalia to consult with stakeholders in finalising the CONOPs, in line with its mandate contained in a 20 June communiqué of the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC). During the visit, the delegation met with officials from ATMIS, the Somali government, and ATMIS troop-contributing countries (TCCs) as well as members of the Core Security Partners Group—the EU, the UN, Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the UK, and the US. The discussions apparently focused on the size, mandate, timelines, and exit strategy of the post-ATMIS mission. On 26 July, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Bankole Adeoye engaged with representatives from the EU, the UK, and the US in Addis Ababa, where they agreed to strengthen cooperation in supporting Somalia’s Security Sector Development Plan.
On 1 August, the AUPSC met to consider the CONOPs of the follow-on mission to ATMIS, to be called the AU Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). In a communiqué adopted following the meeting, the AUPSC endorsed the formation of AUSSOM. It underscored the need to assess the implications of ATMIS’ third phase drawdown to avoid any security vacuum during the transition period to AUSSOM and requested the AU Commission to report in this regard by the end of September. The AUPSC emphasised the importance of enhanced coordination among AUSSOM, the Somali government, troop- and police-contributing countries, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the UN, and all other strategic partners, as well as of establishing clear lines of communication, joint planning processes, and regular information-sharing mechanisms. The AUPSC welcomed the offer made by Egypt and Djibouti to “contribute to the elements of the AUSSOM”. It requested the AU Commission to continue engaging with relevant partners to ensure adequate, predictable, and sustainable funding for AUSSOM and report on potential sources of funding by September. It further requested the AU Commission to expedite the finalisation of the lessons learned and best practices from the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and ATMIS and report on this by December.
Algeria, in its capacity as the coordinator of the UN Security Council’s “A3 plus one” members (Algeria, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Guyana), sent the CONOPs for AUSSOM to the president of the Security Council in a 7 August letter (S/2024/597). The CONOPs recognises that Al-Shabaab, a terrorist group affiliated with Al-Qaida, continues to employ asymmetric tactics to carry out complex attacks. It further assesses that, in the short to medium term, Al-Shabaab may acquire the capacity to arm commercially available drones, potentially using them as a weapon of choice against the Somali security forces (SSF) and ATMIS troops. Additionally, the CONOPs notes that ATMIS’ exit will stretch the SSF, resulting in reduced operational capacity, a situation which it says will be addressed by the follow-on mission.
According to the CONOPs, the follow-on mission will have up to 11,911 personnel, including 85 civilians and 680 police personnel, deployed across four geographical sectors. It foresees that the mission will deploy starting on 1 January 2025 and gradually hand over security responsibilities to the SSF and withdraw its personnel by the end of 2028. The CONOPs sets out the mission’s key mandated tasks, including supporting the SSF in its offensive operations against Al-Shabaab, protecting civilians under imminent threat of physical violence, expanding and strengthening joint operations and logistics bases in all sectors, and facilitating humanitarian access and assistance to vulnerable populations, including through protection of humanitarian personnel and objects. The CONOPs further stipulates that a concept of logistics support will be developed, aimed at addressing the challenges related to funding gaps and inadequate force multipliers and enablers. It notes that this concept shall provide for a dedicated funding mechanism through UN assessed contributions in accordance with resolution 2719 of 21 December 2023 on the financing of AUPSOs, and ensure an integrated logistic system in support of AUSSOM and SSF operations.
Negotiations on the Draft Resolution
In resolution 2741, the Council signalled its intention to convene a meeting by 2 August to review the CONOPs and was expected to decide on subsequent steps regarding post-ATMIS security arrangements ahead of the expiry of ATMIS’ mandate on 12 August. However, it appears that its consideration of the CONOPs was postponed due to AUPSC delays in finalising the CONOPs and transmitting it officially to the UN Security Council. Following its 1 August meeting, the AUPSC apparently tasked the AU Commission to consult with the Somali government on some aspects of the CONOPs, such as the number of troops and police personnel and the political mandate for the follow-on mission.
After the Council formally received the communiqué and the CONOPs, the UK proposed a draft technical rollover of ATMIS’ mandate until 15 August, to allow time for further deliberations on a substantive resolution deciding the next steps regarding post-ATMIS security arrangements. The UK circulated an initial draft of the resolution to all Council members yesterday morning (8 August) and invited comments until 3 pm of that day. It appears that the penholder’s suggestion for a technical rollover of ATMIS’ mandate received broad support from Council members. Therefore, the UK placed the same draft text under silence procedure later that evening until 11 am today (9 August). The draft text passed silence and was subsequently put in blue earlier today.
At the time of writing, Council members are negotiating a substantive resolution that would extend ATMIS’ authorisation for a longer period and is expected to be tabled for a vote by 15 August. The UK shared the zero draft of this resolution with all Council members yesterday and convened the first round of negotiations today.
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**Post-script: On 12 August, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2747, extending the authorisation for AU member states to deploy uniformed personnel in the country to carry out the mandated tasks of the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) by three days, until 15 August.
