What's In Blue

Posted Tue 3 Sep 2024
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Dispatches from the Field: Sessions on “Preventing Emerging Security Risks through Innovation, Science and Technology”

At Switzerland’s invitation, members of the Security Council visited Geneva on 25 and 26 August to mark the 75th anniversary of the 1949 Geneva Conventions. (For background information, see our 25 August What’s in Blue story.)

On the afternoon of the informal visit’s second day, three sessions were held, focusing on “Preventing Emerging Security Risks through Innovation, Science, and Technology”. A concept note for the visit prepared by Switzerland highlighted the need to rethink prevention strategies in light of emerging risks to international peace and security. It also stressed the importance of access to reliable information in order to enhance the Council’s preventive role. The afternoon programme was structured to allow Council members to engage with Geneva-based experts in data collection, technological innovation, and risk anticipation.

Session I

In the first session, representatives from the UN Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), the UN Satellite Centre (UNOSAT), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) briefed Council members. The discussion highlighted how geospatial technology, satellite imagery, and weather forecasting can aid humanitarian efforts, enhance disaster resilience, and promote sustainable development, especially in conflict zones and regions vulnerable to climate change.

The representative from UNOSAT, a programme under UNITAR, provided an overview of the agency’s satellite imagery services, focusing on the Emergency Mapping Service, which has been pivotal in aiding response efforts to natural disasters and conflicts. The briefing highlighted recent operations, such as in South Sudan, where satellite-derived flood assessment maps have been essential for humanitarian operations. The discussion also covered UNOSAT’s innovative Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based tools for flood detection and forecasting, showcasing how technology can enhance disaster response. The representative also provided specific examples of recent support UNOSAT has offered to several member states currently serving on the Security Council. For example, UNOSAT provided Algerian authorities satellite imagery and support during major forest fires in 2021 and 2023, as well as extended extensive mapping support to Mozambique’s authorities following tropical Cyclone Idai in 2019.

The WMO representative highlighted the organisation’s role in delivering accurate weather, climate, and water-related information through an extensive global observation network. The representative emphasised the challenges in under-observed regions and the crucial need for capacity-building within national meteorological services to transform complex forecasts into actionable early warning systems. The briefing also addressed the heightened risk of severe flooding in South Sudan, showcasing the WMO’s collaborative efforts to support informed decision-making ahead of such events.

Security Council members raised several questions about the practical use of these technologies in areas affected by conflict and by climate-related risks. One member asked about the possibility of obtaining real-time satellite images of Gaza. The response clarified that, although live satellite feeds were not available in the room at that moment, detailed assessments based on satellite imagery could be provided at a later time. It was further noted that satellite data revealed extensive damage in Gaza, including the destruction of 88 percent of its industrial facilities.

Another member questioned the added value of UN-provided tools given the widespread availability of public satellite images. The respondent emphasised the UN’s critical role in delivering neutral and impartial analysis, which, he maintained, remains essential despite the accessibility of free satellite data. Additionally, some Council members raised concerns about the accuracy of early warning systems. The briefers acknowledged that, while substantial progress has been made, further efforts are needed to improve the precision of predictions through the use of AI.

One Council member emphasised the importance of integrating climate security issues into broader peacekeeping and policy-making frameworks, advocating for a systematic approach to incorporating critical information into decision-making processes. The briefers highlighted UNITAR’s mandate in facilitating the transfer of information in order to improve policy decisions, while also noting the need for a more formalised mandate to systematically share data across the UN system.

Session II

In the second session, representatives from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) briefed Council members on the intersection between climate change, environmental degradation, and security. The session centred on how climate and environmental factors drive conflict and instability and explored the development of innovative tools and coordinated approaches to tackle these challenges.

The discussion opened with an overview of UNEP’s longstanding role in assessing the environmental effects of conflicts, a responsibility that has expanded to include the broader implications of climate change on security. The briefers highlighted UNEP’s Disasters and Conflicts Branch, which provides expertise in environmental and climate-related risks to support peace and security efforts.

A key tool presented was Strata, a digital geospatial data platform developed by the UNEP in partnership with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and supported by the EU. Strata integrates environmental and socio-economic data to map and visualise areas where these strains intersect with conflict risks. The tool’s usefulness in identifying hotspots where an intervention may be needed was emphasised, although it was noted that Strata is not predictive but rather offers a current snapshot based on existing data.

The UNEP representative also discussed the Climate Security Mechanism (CSM), which has deployed advisors to several UN missions and supported regional organisations to address climate-related security risks. (The CSM was established in 2018 as a joint initiative between several UN entities to help address climate-related security risks more systematically.) The establishment of regional climate security hubs, such as the one hosted by the UNEP in the Horn of Africa, was highlighted as an example of how regional perspectives can enhance the effectiveness of UN interventions.

The IFRC representative underscored the critical role of local communities in addressing the effects of climate change, while advocating for a shift from top-down approaches to locally-led adaptations. The IFRC’s extensive network and its focus on supporting the most vulnerable populations were presented as essential components in building resilience to climate-related risks.

Council members raised several questions about the practical applications of these tools and how climate security data is integrated into broader UN initiatives. One key area of discussion was how data from tools like Strata is used to guide decision-making in climate adaptation, especially in developing countries facing ongoing humanitarian crises. The briefers responded by highlighting the crucial role of sustained investment in local capacity and the importance of using community-driven data to inform both immediate and long-term resilience strategies.

Another question focused on the coordination among anticipatory tools across different organisations and the potential for increased standardisation within the UN system to better support Security Council decisions. The briefers acknowledged the need for more structured dialogue and coordination among the various tools and platforms, citing existing initiatives like the Anticipation Hub and Early Warnings for All. They also recognised that more can be done to enable these tools to respond effectively to the needs of those on the ground.

Questions were also raised regarding the accessibility of UNEP’s tools and whether other UN agencies are aware of and use these resources. The briefers clarified that UNEP actively cooperates with other UN entities through the CSM and various partnerships, providing support in response to requests from both member states and UN agencies.

Session III

The third and final session centred on the future implications of scientific advancements, particularly how emerging technologies might affect global peace and security. Briefers from the Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator (GESDA) provided a comprehensive overview of cutting-edge developments in AI, quantum technologies, synthetic biology, and neurotechnology. These fields were identified as crucial to both future opportunities and challenges, with the convergence of these technologies expected to drive significant changes in the coming decades.

The briefers highlighted that AI, already a transformative force, is expected to accelerate advancements in other domains, including quantum computing, which could potentially disrupt cybersecurity by breaking even the most advanced encryption algorithms. At the same time, argued the briefers, quantum technologies also hold promise for improving aspects related to the work of UN peace operations—including logistics and mission planning—as well as achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in areas such water, sanitation, and food security. It was emphasised that while technological progress is unavoidable, the primary aim is to establish regulatory frameworks that mitigate potential risks without hindering innovation.

One Council member raised concerns about the security risks associated with quantum computing, specifically its potential to compromise existing encryption systems. The briefers acknowledged this threat but also noted that quantum technologies could lead to the development of new, more secure forms of encryption. However, it remains uncertain which capability will be realised first.

The discussion on synthetic biology underscored both the potential for rapid vaccine development and the threat of biological weapons, especially as synthetic biology tools become more accessible. Council members expressed concern about the misuse of synthetic biology, specifically the threat of biological weapons developed by non-state actors. The briefers noted that while efforts are being made to restrict the distribution of powerful synthetic biology tools, the field is advancing quickly, and there is a real possibility that non-state actors could eventually gain access to these technologies. They emphasised in this regard the need for governance mechanisms that can keep up with rapid scientific advancements.

It was also noted that neurotechnology has the potential to enhance cognitive functions and soldier capabilities, raising concerns about the militarisation of brain-computer interfaces and the ethical implications of cognitive warfare. Council members asked whether current regulations are adequately keeping pace with these technological advancements. The briefers cautioned that these technologies could be exploited, especially by desperate governments in wartime scenarios.

The session emphasised the urgent need to increase science literacy, develop tools that leverage technology for peace, and accelerate diplomatic efforts to address the conflicts that these emerging technologies could exacerbate. GESDA’s Anticipation Observatory was introduced as an intelligence tool designed to help decision-makers understand and navigate the implications of these scientific advancements.

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