Sudan
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In May, Council members will turn increased attention to securing Khartoum's compliance with its commitments on the hybrid AU-UN peacekeeping mission in Darfur. It remains to be seen whether the Council will also put weight behind the political process. At press time, Council members were negotiating a US draft renewing UNMIS for three months.
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The Council is expected to take up in April a response to Sudan's negative stance on peacekeeping in Darfur. A briefing by Under Secretary-General John Holmes on his visit to the region on 21-22 March may also stress the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation. At press time, members were awaiting results of a number of diplomatic initiatives.
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With the crisis in Darfur reaching more serious proportions each month, the Council is expected to take up the question again in March, particularly Khartoum's delayed response to the Secretary-General's heavy support proposal. It will also be pushing for prompt AU-UN agreement on the hybrid operation.
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Council members will be looking for concrete action on deployment of a hybrid AU-UN operation in Darfur. Agreement from Khartoum on key details, including mandate and size, was pending at press time. A positive outcome is likely to lead to Council action triggering wider UN approval of funding and resources.
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In January, Council members will be looking for concrete evidence that Khartoum is following through on its signals that a new Council statement (adopted on 19 December) would unlock consent for the proposed hybrid AU-UN operation in Darfur. Agreement on key aspects, such as mandate and size, were still pending at press time.
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Council members are likely to support the proposed hybrid force in Darfur, but without enthusiasm and only as a last resort if it's essential in negotiating an agreement with Sudan. At press time, the outcome of the 30 November AU Summit on this issue was still unknown.
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The impasse over the transition in Darfur from the AU force to a UN peacekeeping operation is likely to continue to generate Council discussion in November. But no formal action is expected at least until the results are known of diplomatic initiatives vis-à-vis Sudan and the AU Peace and Security Council high-level meeting, scheduled for the end of November.
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The Council will continue to focus on the planned transition from the AU Mission in the Sudan (AMIS) in Darfur to the UN. The Council is also likely to be paying close attention to the beginning of the implementation of the UN package of assistance to AMIS, which resolution 1706 sets as the start of a phased transition. Members will also need to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS), which expires on 8 October.
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At the time of writing, it seems that a draft resolution establishing the mandate in Darfur for the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) and authorising UN assistance to the AU Mission to the Sudan (AMIS) will be adopted by 1 September. China, Russia and Qatar are uncomfortable with passing the resolution without prior consent from Sudan.
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The Council will hold consultations on Sudan/Darfur on Thursday, 17 August. Members are expected to discuss the recent report of the Secretary-General containing options for transition and for assistance from the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) to the AU Mission in the Sudan (AMIS), as well as his 10 August update on Darfur.
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Contrary to expectations, the Council did not discuss Darfur in July, except for a report from the Chair of the 1591 Sanctions Committee in consultations on 27 July. Perhaps attention was diverted due to events in North Korea, Gaza and Lebanon.
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Discussion of the transition to a UN operation in Darfur is expected to continue in July. The Council expects a report from the Secretariat with the results of the AU/UN assessment mission and options for the transition. It is unclear what Council action will emerge, particularly since Khartoum continues to refuse to agree to the transition.
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Much of the Council's attention and energy in June will be consumed by Sudan. Formulating the details of the future UN mandate in Darfur will be a focus.
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In May, the Council is expected to increase the level of attention to Darfur by:working on the options for the transition from an AU to a UN led force; preparing for a Council visiting mission to Sudan, Addis Ababa and possibly Abuja expected for 5 -11 June; considering the expansion of the list of individuals for targeted sanctions (see the 19th April report of the Panel of Experts); continuing to press for progress in Chad and Abuja; and paying close attention to the situation facing Chad.
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Having sent a unanimous signal on 24 March that it remains committed to the transition from the AU Mission in Sudan (AMIS) to a UN peacekeeping operation in Darfur, the Council is unlikely to take action on the UN force mandate until it receives an options report from the Secretariat in late April.
